It’s time for the true deciders at Roland Garros, and we’ve already seen the WTA semi-finals played down to the wire, with 2014 finalist Simona Halep finally pushing through as she aims to finish what she was on the cusp of three years ago.
But today is perhaps the biggest clash of them all – Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem. The two played each other only recently and as it stands, Dominic Thiem is the only player to beat Nadal on clay this year.
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
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This will likely be even bigger than the final. Nadal leads this head-to-head record at 4-2, but Thiem has the most recent victory. That win came over Nadal, and not any Nadal but an in-form Nadal on clay this year at the quarter-finals of the Italian Open. Many had expected the Spaniard to take that title fairly easily – and given he has already won it seven times before, that would not have been such a stretch of the imagination.
Not only did Thiem of The Cross-Court – or if you like, Thiem of the Heavy Groundstrokes defeat Nadal, he defeated Nadal in straight sets. That loss had prompted Nadal to admit that Thiem was a definitive “Roland Garros winner, I just hope it is not this year.” That followed after Nadal defeated Thiem at the finals of the Mutua Madrid Open – another Nadal stronghold, but Thiem put up quite the fight. THAT followed a Barcelona Open final where the Austrian had gone down relatively tamely – but 23-year-old Thiem’s prowess has only grown with each final. Straight sets, to tiebreaks, to a round defeat altogether.
Once Austria’s ‘NextGen’ hope, Thiem is surely now a NowGen player – with repeated defeats of Big Four players on their pet surfaces, most recently Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.
Interestingly, the two have only ever played each other on clay courts – so this will continue that 6-match trend. Thiem has some big groundstrokes, but his forehand – even against Novak Djokovic, was a bit out of control; the 23-year-old sent shots wide on more than a few occasions, but he is definitely a clay-court player to watch out for regardless.
Nadal is currently perhaps the fittest player on the court – and on the Tour, and now moves up to World No. 2 after Thiem’s defeat of Djokovic. The intent is there from both players and so is the aggressive play. But Nadal at Roland Garros is like a lion defending its den – and that aggression will amplify his already top-level gameplay multiple times, we think. There is a very real possibility that Nadal will defend his title here – meaning he can beat Thiem – but we’re fully expecting this one to go down to the wire.
Players have previously taken Nadal to five sets and beat him – but that was the old Nadal, who could be ‘tired out’ – not the Rafael Nadal of 2017, looking to demolish any opponent in his path. Even if it does go to the end, Nadal will fight for every point – much as he did at the Australian Open this year.
Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in five sets
Andy Murray vs Stan Wawrinka
World No. 1 Andy Murray is up against third seed Stan Wawrinka – and one glaring difference separates the two on this ground – the fact that Wawrinka is a former French Open winner. The Swiss No. 3 is also in the better form of late, and recently won a third Grand Slam title at the US Open. He continued that form into the 2017 season – culminating in an epic semi-final battle against eventual champion Roger Federer at the Australian Open, and following that up with a finals finish at Indian Wells.
Murray leads this head-to-head record 10-7, but Wawrinka has won three of their last 5 matches. The Swiss has also been more successful on clay than his counterpart, although at their last clay meeting – interestingly, also at the semi-finals of Roland Garros, in 2016, it was Murray who won in four sets.
Wawrinka is also among the most mentally resilient players on court. After being seriously taxed by mercurial talent Gael Monfils earlier in the French Open, Wawrinka held out in the first two sets before firmly thundering to a straight sets win in the third by a decisive margin. He has defeated Novak Djokovic to win two of his three Grand Slams – the French Open in 2015 and the US Open last year.
Let’s also look at the stats – Wawrinka beat a fit Rafael Nadal to his own first ever Grand Slam final, and he’s never been a slouch on clay. And for whatever scores of tennis watchers might say, Wawrinka’s backhand returns and his quick court movement are not only entertaining but a strong display of his talent. Some of the Swiss ace’s shots are just that – talent that cannot necessarily be taught.
As it stands, funnily enough, Wawrinka is closer to a career Grand Slam than WorldNo. 1 Andy Murray, who has the same number of titles. I’m likely to give this one to Wawrinka based on current form. Although we’ve seen Murray’s aggression and fighting spirit return, his game is sitll not a 100% – he’s dropped three sets so far in the tournament, against players far out of the top 10, and four have gone to tiebreak – including one against Martin Klizan.
Wawrinka is yet to drop a set in the tournament, in contrast, and has won convincingly over three seeded players – two of whom are very strong on clay.
The Swiss is looking set for another Grand Slam final, and we think he might well be a contender.
Prediction: Stan Wawrinka in four sets
What is the foot injury that has troubled Rafael Nadal over the years? Check here
