Top seed and defending champion Novak Djokovic will take on fifth seed and 13-time champion Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals of the French Open on Tuesday night. Djokovic thrashed Diego Schwartzman in the round of 16, while Nadal got the better of Felix Auger-Aliassime in a grueling five-set match.
This will be the 59th clash between the two legends, with Djokovic leading their head-to-head 30-28. However, Nadal leads 19-8 on clay and, more importantly, 7-2 at Roland Garros. Djokovic, however, beat the Spaniard in last year’s semifinals.
Djokovic is looking better with each match, while Nadal has battled his way through. There will be many factors in play in Tuesday's match. On that note, let’s take a look at three things that might determine the fate of the match:
#1 Heavier and colder conditions during the night session:
With the quarterfinal clash scheduled to be played at night, the conditions will be heavier and colder as compared to the day session. This would mean that both players would find it easier to defend but tougher to hit through each other.
This might reduce the effectiveness of Nadal’s vicious forehand as Djokovic might find it easier to retrieve balls. In his press conference after the fourth round, Nadal expressed his dislike for night sessions on clay and stated that he would prefer a day match. The heat and lack of humidity helps Nadal's topspin forehand, with the ball zipping through quickly.
On the flip side, the Serb's much-improved serve would become less of a weapon in slower conditions. It will also be much harder for Djokovic to try and hit through Nadal, whose defense on clay is unparalleled.
#2 Rafael Nadal’s ability to put pressure on Novak Djokovic's forehand
Djokovic’s backhand is amongst the best in the world and the Serb utilizes it for defense and offense incredibly well. Hence, Nadal's crosscourt forehand, his bread-and-butter shot, is unlikely to be too effective.
Hence, Nadal’s ability to make Djokovic move laterally with his forehand could be crucial. The Spaniard would have to play his crosscourt backhand as well as he did against Auger-Aliassime and not allow Djokovic to get comfortable playing his forehand.
The Spaniard might also opt to hit his forehand down-the-line if Djokovic hits backhand slices deep to push Nadal behind the baseline. By doing so, the Serb will be able to step in and play aggressively to try and win the point quicker.
#3 Effectiveness of drop shots and ability at the net
Novak Djokovic played a lot of drop shots to drag Rafael Nadal forward before lobbing the Spaniard to finish points during last year’s semifinal. He might adopt that tactic again and Nadal will need to be prepared to rush the net frequently.
However, Rafael Nadal exhibited exceptional foot speed and court coverage in the match against Auger-Aliassime and should be able to counter the tactic.
Moreover, Nadal himself might play a lot of probing approach shots and then rush the net to hit volleys, as he did against Auger-Aliassime. However, Djokovic’s touch has improved considerably in recent years and he might fancy his chances of coming out on top in most exchanges at the net.
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