French Open 2022: Men's singles forecast & predictions

A little over 12 months ago, Carlos Alcaraz had turned 18 - just in time for his maiden participation at the 2021 French Open. Ranked 97th in the world, he blitzed through the qualifiers without dropping a set and made it to the third round. It was beyond question that he had potential. But it was also beyond imagination that he would enter the next edition of the tournament as a favorite for the title.

The irrepressible Spaniard recently sent shockwaves through the tennis community by becoming the first player ever to defeat Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic back-to-back on clay. He then backed it up by beating the defending champion Alexander Zverev to become the youngest winner of the Madrid Masters.

The teenager has exhibited physicality and maturity beyond his years this season - which has catapulted him to the top of the Elo ratings on Tennis Abstract. However, it remains to be seen how Alcaraz will fare over the best-of-five sets - especially if he faces Nadal or Djokovic in the semifinals.

That said, the sport isn't played on paper - and all 128 players in the draw have a shot at the title. Let's delve into the round-by-round tournament forecast for every player in the draw - generated using the aforementioned Elo ratings.

Quarter-wise forecast for French Open 2022

1st quarter

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on a collision course in the first quarter

Novak Djokovic (Elo 2096.2) and Rafael Nadal (Elo 1987.2) have only been stopped by one another in the last two editions of the French Open. The two biggest names have been drawn in the same quarter this year - which makes the matchup all the more probable - 28.95% to be precise.

The Serb holds a decisive advantage in the Elo ratings this time around. But no man has ever dominated a tournament like Nadal at Roland Garros. Expect the Spaniard's performance to go up a few notches in Paris - provided he's fit.

Sl No.	Player	Elo	R1 Win%	R2 Win%	R3 Win%	R4 Win%	QF Win%	SF Win%	F Win%
1	Novak Djokovic	2096.2	91.59	82.64	73.42	59.72	44.97	25.84	17.38
2	Yoshihito Nishioka	1681.4	8.41	3.87	1.68	0.52	0.13	0.02	0.00
3	Alex Molcan	1726.8	55.73	8.09	4.02	1.47	0.44	0.07	0.02
4	Federico Coria	1686.8	44.27	5.40	2.39	0.76	0.20	0.03	0.01
5	Aljaz Bedene	1715.1	60.12	27.38	4.72	1.66	0.48	0.08	0.02
6	Christopher Oconnell	1643.8	39.88	14.34	1.85	0.50	0.11	0.01	0.00
7	Pablo Cuevas	1657.1	31.92	14.62	1.99	0.57	0.13	0.02	0.00
8	Jenson Brooksby	1788.7	68.08	43.67	9.94	4.43	1.65	0.36	0.10
9	Grigor Dimitrov	1846.2	78.53	62.27	32.56	10.28	4.59	1.26	0.44
10	Marcos Giron	1620.9	21.47	11.08	2.75	0.38	0.07	0.01	0.00
11	Borna Coric	1549.8	36.74	7.58	1.39	0.14	0.02	0.00	0.00
12	Carlos Taberner	1644.2	63.26	19.08	5.19	0.79	0.17	0.02	0.00
13	Daniel Altmaier	1709.6	48.29	15.01	6.48	1.27	0.36	0.06	0.01
14	Jaume Munar	1721.5	51.71	16.76	7.49	1.54	0.45	0.07	0.02
15	Andrey Kuznetsov	1566.1	12.95	3.85	1.02	0.11	0.02	0.00	0.00
16	Diego Schwartzman	1897.1	87.05	64.38	43.14	15.89	8.15	2.67	1.11
17	Felix Auger Aliassime	1855.5	75.09	53.08	34.66	14.82	5.01	1.42	0.52
18	Juan Pablo Varillas	1663.8	24.91	11.27	4.38	0.95	0.16	0.02	0.00
19	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1602.5	31.13	7.62	2.37	0.40	0.05	0.00	0.00
20	Aslan Karatsev	1740.4	68.87	28.03	13.87	4.04	0.91	0.16	0.04
21	Alejandro Tabilo	1703.1	85.53	34.39	13.50	3.42	0.66	0.10	0.02
22	Borna Gojo	1394.4	14.47	1.48	0.16	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
23	Filip Krajinovic	1770.8	49.65	31.76	15.33	4.98	1.25	0.26	0.07
24	Reilly Opelka	1773.2	50.35	32.36	15.73	5.16	1.31	0.27	0.07
25	Botic Van De Zandschulp	1817.6	73.86	43.18	15.48	8.58	2.56	0.63	0.20
26	Pavel Kotov	1637.2	26.14	8.91	1.71	0.54	0.08	0.01	0.00
27	Fabio Fognini	1799.4	69.84	37.55	12.71	6.73	1.88	0.43	0.13
28	Alexei Popyrin	1653.5	30.16	10.36	2.12	0.71	0.11	0.01	0.00
29	Stan Wawrinka	1528.8	36.23	3.53	0.70	0.14	0.01	0.00	0.00
30	Corentin Moutet	1627.0	63.77	9.55	2.87	0.86	0.12	0.01	0.00
31	Jordan Thompson	1560.0	7.88	3.59	0.82	0.19	0.02	0.00	0.00
32	Rafael Nadal	1987.2	92.12	83.33	63.58	48.47	23.95	10.42	5.57

The favorites from the first quarter to reach the French Open semifinals are:

1. Novak Djokovic: 44.97%
2. Rafael Nadal: 23.95%
3. Diego Schwartzman: 8.15%
4. Felix Auger-Aliassime: 5.01%

Author's predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic bt. Rafael Nadal

2nd quarter

The 2022 Madrid Open finalists headline the second quarter of the draw

World No. 3 Alexander Zverev (Elo 2058) is the highest-ranked player in the second quarter. Despite reaching the semifinals or better in all three claycourt Masters tournaments leading up to Paris, he will be the underdog against Carlos Alcaraz (Elo 2124.4) if they meet in the quarterfinals.

The 19-year-old recently beat the German in the finals of the Madrid Open for a loss of just four games. While Zverev can be unplayable at times when he brings his A-game, its frequency is questionable - especially over best-of-five sets. The intriguing matchup has a 33.85% chance of happening.

Sl No.	Player	Elo	R1 Win%	R2 Win%	R3 Win%	R4 Win%	QF Win%	SF Win%	F Win%
33	Alexander Zverev	2058.0	94.55	72.64	61.08	50.38	27.10	15.95	9.98
34	Sebastian Ofner	1562.4	5.45	0.98	0.24	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
35	Dusan Lajovic	1694.1	24.78	3.49	1.43	0.55	0.09	0.02	0.00
36	Sebastian Baez	1887.0	75.22	22.90	15.31	9.87	3.35	1.25	0.50
37	Brandon Nakashima	1617.7	39.21	10.17	1.15	0.34	0.04	0.01	0.00
38	Kamil Majchrzak	1693.9	60.79	21.36	3.42	1.32	0.22	0.04	0.01
39	Tallon Griekspoor	1771.6	42.70	27.69	6.20	3.04	0.70	0.17	0.05
40	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1822.7	57.30	40.78	11.18	6.26	1.72	0.51	0.17
41	John Isner	1807.9	73.99	54.22	29.56	9.07	2.37	0.67	0.21
42	Quentin Halys	1626.3	26.01	12.95	4.07	0.60	0.08	0.01	0.00
43	Taro Daniel	1669.4	68.03	25.57	9.34	1.67	0.26	0.04	0.01
44	Gregoire Barrere	1538.2	31.97	7.26	1.63	0.16	0.01	0.00	0.00
45	Michael Mmoh	1572.1	38.58	8.63	2.58	0.30	0.03	0.00	0.00
46	Bernabe Zapata Miralles	1652.9	61.42	18.64	7.40	1.23	0.18	0.03	0.00
47	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna	1406.4	7.86	1.78	0.26	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
48	Taylor Fritz	1834.0	92.14	70.94	45.15	15.15	4.33	1.35	0.46
49	Cameron Norrie	1860.4	87.52	75.34	49.19	14.09	5.67	1.93	0.71
50	Manuel Guinard	1522.0	12.48	5.93	1.35	0.10	0.01	0.00	0.00
51	Jason Kubler	1480.2	36.79	5.27	1.00	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
52	Denis Kudla	1574.2	63.21	13.46	3.79	0.36	0.05	0.01	0.00
53	Hugo Dellien	1714.8	78.77	34.30	13.96	2.38	0.58	0.11	0.02
54	Dominic Thiem	1487.0	21.23	3.88	0.71	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
55	Nuno Borges	1609.7	24.14	10.15	2.95	0.33	0.05	0.01	0.00
56	Karen Khachanov	1808.6	75.86	51.67	27.04	6.51	2.22	0.63	0.19
57	Sebastian Korda	1788.0	69.86	44.21	8.42	4.07	1.30	0.34	0.10
58	John Millman	1642.0	30.14	12.87	1.35	0.40	0.07	0.01	0.00
59	Lloyd Harris	1678.0	45.95	18.77	2.29	0.78	0.16	0.03	0.01
60	Richard Gasquet	1706.2	54.05	24.15	3.32	1.25	0.29	0.05	0.01
61	Albert Ramos	1723.0	49.55	5.81	2.86	1.14	0.29	0.06	0.01
62	Thanasi Kokkinakis	1726.1	50.45	6.00	2.98	1.20	0.30	0.06	0.01
63	Juan Ignacio Londero	1600.0	4.66	1.53	0.50	0.13	0.02	0.00	0.00
64	Carlos Alcaraz	2124.4	95.34	86.67	78.30	67.18	48.52	32.50	22.92

The favorites from the second quarter to reach the French Open semifinals are:

1. Carlos Alcaraz: 48.52%
2. Alexander Zverev: 27.10%
3. Cameron Norrie: 5.67%
4. Taylor Fritz: 4.33%

Author's predicted quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz bt. Alexander Zverev

3rd quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite from the third quarter of the draw

Stefanos Tsitsipas (Elo 2076.8) has arguably been the greatest benefactor of the draw. His four toughest opponents on paper have all landed in the other half - and the 2021 runner-up will effectively have to go through at most one of them in his quest for the title.

Besides that, the Greek has been in sublime form himself - making the semifinals in Madrid, final in Rome and winning the title in Monte-Carlo. His most likely opponent in the quarterfinals will be Casper Ruud (Elo 1961.5), with the matchup being 25.44% probable.

The Norwegian, who plays his best tennis on the dirt, has rediscovered his form after a slow start on the European clay swing and has the potential to upset the World No. 4. After early losses in Monte-Carlo and Madrid, the Norwegian hit his stride, reaching the semifinals in Rome and has now reached the final in Geneva.

Sl No.	Player	Elo	R1 Win%	R2 Win%	R3 Win%	R4 Win%	QF Win%	SF Win%	F Win%
65	Casper Ruud	1961.5	82.44	69.98	58.52	42.90	21.64	12.76	4.87
66	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	1692.8	17.56	9.70	5.17	1.96	0.43	0.11	0.01
67	Emil Ruusuvuori	1696.4	67.88	16.01	8.61	3.31	0.74	0.19	0.02
68	Ugo Humbert	1566.4	32.12	4.31	1.56	0.36	0.05	0.01	0.00
69	Joao Sousa	1562.8	38.35	12.92	2.16	0.50	0.06	0.01	0.00
70	Chun-Hsin Tseng	1645.3	61.65	27.31	6.40	2.05	0.37	0.08	0.01
71	Peter Gojowczyk	1538.9	24.61	9.73	1.47	0.30	0.03	0.00	0.00
72	Lorenzo Sonego	1733.4	75.39	50.04	16.12	7.00	1.79	0.52	0.08
73	Frances Tiafoe	1775.9	63.97	31.50	16.50	6.74	2.00	0.69	0.13
74	Benjamin Bonzi	1676.2	36.03	12.84	5.04	1.50	0.31	0.07	0.01
75	Jiri Lehecka	1706.1	34.18	15.45	6.66	2.19	0.51	0.13	0.02
76	David Goffin	1819.9	65.82	40.20	23.40	10.81	3.69	1.47	0.33
77	Marco Cecchinato	1587.3	37.34	9.66	2.54	0.54	0.08	0.01	0.00
78	Pablo Andujar	1677.2	62.66	22.39	8.33	2.48	0.51	0.12	0.01
79	Giulio Zeppieri	1515.1	14.27	4.64	0.89	0.14	0.01	0.00	0.00
80	Hubert Hurkacz	1826.6	85.73	63.31	36.63	17.22	6.01	2.45	0.57
81	Denis Shapovalov	1834.7	53.28	36.26	24.74	8.29	3.97	1.66	0.40
82	Holger Rune	1811.9	46.72	30.47	19.93	6.23	2.80	1.09	0.24
83	Pedro Martinez	1740.2	67.05	25.60	14.34	3.54	1.27	0.38	0.06
84	Henri Laaksonen	1616.8	32.95	7.67	3.01	0.47	0.11	0.02	0.00
85	Norbert Gombos	1612.9	46.37	16.16	4.42	0.68	0.15	0.03	0.00
86	Pedro Cachin	1638.2	53.63	20.42	6.18	1.05	0.26	0.05	0.00
87	Hugo Gaston	1614.1	28.90	13.94	3.83	0.59	0.13	0.02	0.00
88	Alex De Minaur	1770.5	71.10	49.48	23.55	6.44	2.55	0.86	0.16
89	Daniel Evans	1688.0	46.55	28.64	4.97	1.96	0.58	0.14	0.02
90	Francisco Cerundolo	1712.0	53.45	34.60	6.59	2.81	0.91	0.25	0.04
91	Mikael Ymer	1626.4	56.74	22.39	3.03	0.96	0.22	0.04	0.00
92	James Duckworth	1579.3	43.26	14.37	1.59	0.42	0.08	0.01	0.00
93	Lucas Pouille	1616.8	67.92	6.63	2.85	0.87	0.20	0.04	0.00
94	Zdenek Kolar	1486.5	32.08	1.60	0.42	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.00
95	Lorenzo Musetti	1825.1	19.02	15.27	10.84	6.30	2.93	1.19	0.27
96	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2076.8	80.98	76.50	69.71	59.30	45.59	33.33	17.79

The favorites from the third quarter to reach the French Open semifinals are:

1. Stefanos Tsitsipas: 45.99%
2. Casper Ruud: 21.64%
3. Hubert Hurkacz: 6.01%
4. Denis Shapovalov: 3.97%

Author's predicted quarterfinal: Capser Ruud bt. Stefanos Tsitsipas

4th quarter

Jannik Sinner has the highest Elo rating from the 4th quarter

Daniil Medvedev (Elo 1928.1) headlines the most open quarter of the draw - at least by ranking. However, clay doesn't suit the gamestyle of the World No. 2. In addition, he is returning from an injury. This automatically diverts attention towards his compatriot Andrey Rublev (Elo 1933.2). But it is Jannik Sinner (Elo 1965.6) who is the most favored to reach the quarterfinals from this section.

The 20-year-old has notched up an impressive 80% win-loss record this season. While he has been supremely efficient against lower-ranked players, Sinner has fared poorly against the best. He has registered just one victory over a top-10 player this year - which incidentally came against Rublev himself. There's a 33.51% chance of the pair squaring off in the round-of-16 - which the Italian is favored to win.

In the last eight, Sinner's most probable opponent is Medvedev (12.72%).

Sl No.	Player	Elo	R1 Win%	R2 Win%	R3 Win%	R4 Win%	QF Win%	SF Win%	F Win%
97	Andrey Rublev	1933.2	84.54	69.58	52.54	30.32	18.63	8.70	3.02
98	Soon Woo Kwon	1638.1	15.46	7.28	2.66	0.63	0.15	0.02	0.00
99	Adrian Mannarino	1560.4	30.69	4.57	1.24	0.22	0.04	0.00	0.00
100	Federico Delbonis	1701.9	69.31	18.57	8.41	2.53	0.79	0.17	0.02
101	Benoit Paire	1600.8	31.09	9.15	1.96	0.40	0.08	0.01	0.00
102	Ilya Ivashka	1739.1	68.91	33.08	11.73	4.00	1.42	0.35	0.06
103	Cristian Garin	1765.1	53.78	31.96	12.31	4.56	1.77	0.48	0.09
104	Tommy Paul	1738.8	46.22	25.81	9.14	3.11	1.11	0.27	0.04
105	Nikoloz Basilashvili	1744.3	77.43	52.14	16.06	6.16	2.23	0.56	0.09
106	Maxime Cressy	1530.1	22.57	8.56	1.12	0.19	0.03	0.00	0.00
107	Mackenzie Mcdonald	1649.9	62.45	27.15	5.89	1.62	0.41	0.07	0.01
108	Franco Agamenone	1561.5	37.55	12.14	1.82	0.35	0.06	0.01	0.00
109	Roberto Carballes Baena	1660.6	44.20	8.35	3.96	1.13	0.30	0.05	0.01
110	Oscar Otte	1701.1	55.80	12.39	6.57	2.18	0.68	0.15	0.02
111	Bjorn Fratangelo	1542.3	8.04	2.48	0.80	0.14	0.02	0.00	0.00
112	Jannik Sinner	1965.6	91.96	76.78	63.78	42.46	27.84	14.14	5.47
113	Pablo Carreno Busta	1891.3	90.01	72.28	48.85	28.28	14.10	5.86	1.75
114	Gilles Simon	1509.5	9.99	3.12	0.63	0.09	0.01	0.00	0.00
115	Jiri Vesely	1635.9	47.00	11.07	3.71	0.97	0.20	0.03	0.00
116	Steve Johnson	1656.8	53.00	13.53	4.89	1.38	0.31	0.06	0.01
117	Marton Fucsovics	1732.9	81.03	36.47	14.01	5.21	1.57	0.38	0.06
118	Geoffrey Blancaneaux	1480.7	18.97	3.46	0.50	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.00
119	Attila Balazs	1404.0	9.36	1.69	0.17	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
120	Marin Cilic	1798.4	90.64	58.38	27.24	12.42	4.71	1.45	0.30
121	Miomir Kecmanovic	1799.6	70.61	44.65	19.15	9.06	3.45	1.07	0.22
122	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1647.3	29.39	12.34	3.11	0.88	0.19	0.03	0.00
123	Arthur Rinderknech	1735.7	61.64	29.12	10.17	3.95	1.21	0.30	0.05
124	Alexander Bublik	1653.3	38.36	13.89	3.58	1.03	0.23	0.04	0.00
125	Ricardas Berankis	1660.2	35.40	8.25	3.20	0.95	0.22	0.04	0.00
126	Laslo Djere	1764.7	64.60	22.25	11.82	5.04	1.71	0.47	0.08
127	Facundo Bagnis	1650.8	16.85	6.62	2.48	0.71	0.16	0.03	0.00
128	Daniil Medvedev	1928.1	83.15	62.88	46.49	29.95	16.39	7.55	2.58

The favorites from the fourth quarter to reach the French Open semifinals are:

1. Jannik Sinner: 27.84%
2. Andrey Rublev: 18.63%
3. Daniil Medvedev: 16.39%
4. Pablo Carreno Busta: 14.10%

Author's predicted quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner bt. Miomir Kecmanovic

French Open 2022 semifinals and finals forecast

The favorites from the top half to reach the French Open final are:

1. Carlos Alcaraz: 32.50%
2. Novak Djokovic: 25.84%
3. Alexander Zverev: 15.95%
4. Rafael Nadal: 10.42%
5. Diego Schwartzman: 2.67%
6. Cameron Norrie: 1.93%
7. Felix Auger-Aliassime: 1.42%
8. Taylor Fritz: 1.35%

Author's predicted semifinal: Carlos Alcaraz bt. Novak Djokovic

The favorites from the bottom half to reach the French Open final are:

1. Stefanos Tsitsipas: 33.33%
2. Jannik Sinner: 14.14%
3. Casper Ruud: 12.76%
4. Andrey Rublev: 8.7%
5. Daniil Medvedev: 7.55%
6. Pablo Carreno Busta: 5.86%
7. Hubert Hurkacz: 2.45%
8. Denis Shapovalov: 1.66%

Author's predicted semifinal: Casper Ruud bt. Jannik Sinner

The favorites to lift the French Open title are:

1. Carlos Alcaraz: 22.92%
2. Stefanos Tsitsipas: 17.79%
3. Novak Djokovic: 17.38%
4. Alexander Zverev: 9.98%
5. Rafael Nadal: 5.57%
6. Jannik Sinner: 5.47%
7. Casper Ruud: 4.87%
8. Andrey Rublev: 3.02%

Author's predicted final: Carlos Alcaraz bt. Casper Ruud