2020 French Open champion Iga Swiatek is a firm favorite for the title this year
Few women in the 21st century have created an aura of invincibility around themselves, as Iga Swiatek has done over the last three months. Crowned World No. 1 following the retirement of Ashleigh Barty, it was almost as if she embarked on a mission to justify that tag. Understandably, the 2020 French Open champion enters this edition of the tournament as the firm favorite.
Swiatek's 28-match winning streak heading into Paris has shot up her Elo rating on Tennis Abstract to more than 100 points clear of the next best active player, Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian has been in fine form herself, but couldn't put a dent in the 20-year-old's game when they locked horns in the final of the Italian Open last week. As the top two contenders for the title, the pair have been drawn in opposite halves for the French Open - which admits the possibility of another final showdown.
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In addition to Swiatek, the draw features four other previous winners at Roland Garros - Jelena Ostapenko, Garbine Muguruza, Simona Halep and defending champion Barbora Krejcikova, along with 123 other contenders. So how do all of their chances look on paper heading into the tournament? Let's dive into a round-by-round tournament forecast for the French Open, generated using the aforementioned Elo ratings.
Quarter-wise forecast for French Open 2022
1st quarter
Former French Open champions Halep and Swiatek are slated to face each other in the Round of 16
A battle between the ex-champions wouldn't qualify as a shabby final in any tournament. If you throw in the fact that one of them is the current World No. 1 and the other a former, the matchup assumes even greater significance. But Iga Swiatek (Elo 2135.5) and Simona Halep (Elo 1945.7) are on a collision course in the Round of 16 itself.
While it might be difficult to fathom an earlier exit for the Pole, Halep might have to deal with another former French Open champion in Jelena Ostapenko (Elo 1792.1) in the third round. Whoever comes through this eighth of the draw is most likely to face Karolina Pliskova (Elo 1852.6) in the quarterfinals.
The most probable quarterfinal from the first quarter would be Swiatek vs Pliskova - with a likelihood of 19.90%.
Sl No.
Player
Elo
R1 Win%
R2 Win%
R3 Win%
R4 Win%
QF Win%
SF Win%
F Win%
1
Iga Swiatek
2135.5
92.98
86.10
80.86
66.46
58.02
47.81
37.91
2
Lesia Tsurenko
1686.6
7.02
3.46
1.89
0.58
0.20
0.06
0.01
3
Alison Riske
1630.3
36.49
2.83
1.32
0.33
0.09
0.02
0.00
4
Dayana Yastremska
1726.6
63.51
7.61
4.57
1.60
0.65
0.21
0.06
5
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
1631.4
62.76
26.68
2.71
0.67
0.19
0.04
0.01
6
Kristina Kucova
1540.7
37.24
11.37
0.77
0.13
0.03
0.00
0.00
7
Danka Kovinic
1702.6
56.04
36.11
4.92
1.59
0.59
0.17
0.04
8
Liudmila Samsonova
1660.4
43.96
25.84
2.96
0.82
0.26
0.06
0.01
9
Simona Halep
1945.7
85.38
70.47
54.71
19.70
13.79
8.51
4.86
10
Ana Konjuh
1639.2
14.62
6.54
2.57
0.33
0.10
0.02
0.00
11
Maryna Zanevska
1670.2
48.43
10.88
4.72
0.69
0.23
0.06
0.01
12
Qinwen Zheng
1681.1
51.57
12.10
5.43
0.82
0.28
0.08
0.02
13
Alize Cornet
1673.7
67.94
27.34
7.43
1.09
0.37
0.10
0.02
14
Misaki Doi
1543.2
32.06
7.96
1.27
0.11
0.02
0.00
0.00
15
Lucia Bronzetti
1604.9
25.40
11.73
2.44
0.27
0.07
0.01
0.00
16
Jelena Ostapenko
1792.1
74.60
52.97
21.41
4.79
2.37
0.96
0.35
17
Jessica Pegula
1802.4
69.10
38.20
22.51
11.30
2.60
1.09
0.41
18
Qiang Wang
1662.6
30.90
11.45
4.48
1.43
0.19
0.05
0.01
19
Anhelina Kalinina
1801.9
85.19
47.56
27.99
14.03
3.23
1.36
0.51
20
Hailey Baptiste
1497.9
14.81
2.79
0.56
0.09
0.01
0.00
0.00
21
Mayar Sherif
1761.7
54.45
29.70
14.11
6.29
1.24
0.46
0.15
22
Marta Kostyuk
1730.7
45.55
22.82
9.87
3.99
0.70
0.23
0.07
23
Claire Liu
1732.3
50.65
24.21
10.52
4.28
0.75
0.25
0.07
24
Tamara Zidansek
1727.8
49.35
23.27
9.97
3.99
0.69
0.22
0.06
25
Ekaterina Alexandrova
1811.1
82.13
52.69
27.08
15.23
3.62
1.57
0.61
26
Greet Minnen
1546.2
17.87
5.05
1.06
0.24
0.02
0.00
0.00
27
Irina-Camelia Begu
1735.7
59.29
27.08
11.24
5.12
0.91
0.30
0.09
28
Jasmine Paolini
1670.4
40.71
15.18
5.09
1.87
0.26
0.07
0.02
29
Leolia Jeanjean
1340.6
15.80
1.14
0.10
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
30
Nuria Parrizas Diaz
1631.2
84.20
21.01
6.99
2.21
0.25
0.05
0.01
31
Tessah Andrianjafitrimo
1340.2
4.98
1.05
0.09
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
32
Karolina Pliskova
1852.6
95.02
76.79
48.35
29.94
8.26
4.04
1.79
The favorites from the first quarter to reach the semis are:
Iga Swiatek: 58.02%
Simona Halep: 13.79%
Karolina Pliskova: 8.26%
Ekaterina Alexandrova: 3.62%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek bt. Jessica Pegula
2nd quarter
Sabalenka and Badosa are the frontrunners for the second semi-final berth at the 2022 French Open
If the first quarter promises a showdown between the current and former World No. 1s, the second section has two former World No. 2s lined up for a quarter-final showdown. Apart from that, Paula Badosa (Elo 1928.3) and Aryna Sabalenka (Elo 1911.4) also partner each other in doubles.
On the singles court, the duo recently clashed in the semifinals at Stuttgart - which the Belarusian won in two tight sets. They are 13.38% likely to square off in the final eight in Paris - the most probable from this quarter of the draw. While Badosa's path doesn't appear too rough on paper, Sabalenka might need to deal with Australian Open runner-up Danielle Collins (Elo 1865.2) or the in-form Daria Kasatkina (1844.2) before facing the Spaniard.
Sl No.
Player
Elo
R1 Win%
R2 Win%
R3 Win%
R4 Win%
QF Win%
SF Win%
F Win%
33
Paula Badosa
1928.3
87.42
72.21
52.12
37.82
22.84
8.98
4.91
34
Fiona Ferro
1591.6
12.58
5.40
1.66
0.48
0.09
0.01
0.00
35
Oksana Selekhmeteva
1381.8
14.90
0.97
0.13
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
36
Kaja Juvan
1684.5
85.10
21.43
8.94
3.63
1.03
0.17
0.04
37
Aleksandra Krunic
1583.4
61.05
15.68
3.10
0.87
0.16
0.02
0.00
38
Kamilla Rakhimova
1505.3
38.95
7.36
1.04
0.21
0.03
0.00
0.00
39
Lin Zhu
1402.0
8.62
2.56
0.22
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
40
Veronika Kudermetova
1812.2
91.38
74.40
32.78
19.03
8.46
2.29
0.89
41
Madison Keys
1777.6
75.30
43.29
24.00
9.74
3.88
0.93
0.32
42
Anna Kalinskaya
1584.0
24.70
7.60
2.33
0.46
0.09
0.01
0.00
43
Taylor Townsend
1716.3
47.58
22.80
10.78
3.56
1.14
0.21
0.06
44
Caroline Garcia
1733.1
52.42
26.32
13.03
4.57
1.56
0.31
0.09
45
Katie Volynets
1628.2
50.19
15.78
5.53
1.31
0.30
0.04
0.01
46
Viktorija Golubic
1626.9
49.81
15.58
5.43
1.28
0.29
0.04
0.01
47
Arantxa Rus
1608.0
22.93
10.82
3.51
0.77
0.16
0.02
0.00
48
Elena Rybakina
1818.6
77.07
57.82
35.40
16.24
7.36
2.04
0.81
49
Danielle Collins
1865.2
89.95
71.25
45.14
23.84
12.98
4.21
1.94
50
Viktoriya Tomova
1484.5
10.05
3.03
0.61
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.00
51
Shelby Rogers
1656.7
58.77
16.54
6.19
1.66
0.46
0.07
0.01
52
Tereza Martincova
1595.1
41.23
9.18
2.80
0.58
0.13
0.01
0.00
53
Panna Udvardy
1527.3
54.18
10.08
1.98
0.31
0.05
0.00
0.00
54
Fernanda Contreras Gomez
1498.2
45.82
7.47
1.30
0.18
0.03
0.00
0.00
55
Rebecca Peterson
1651.0
24.75
17.01
5.40
1.42
0.39
0.06
0.01
56
Daria Kasatkina
1844.2
75.25
65.45
36.60
18.29
9.44
2.85
1.23
57
Camila Giorgi
1714.4
62.27
26.12
8.51
3.13
1.08
0.20
0.05
58
Shuai Zhang
1627.4
37.73
11.87
2.83
0.76
0.19
0.02
0.00
59
Irina Maria Bara
1503.8
14.37
3.84
0.55
0.09
0.01
0.00
0.00
60
Yulia Putintseva
1813.9
85.63
58.17
25.83
12.85
6.11
1.67
0.65
61
Madison Brengle
1634.9
61.61
12.57
4.29
1.18
0.30
0.04
0.01
62
Mihaela Buzarnescu
1552.7
38.39
5.58
1.39
0.27
0.05
0.00
0.00
63
Chloe Paquet
1428.7
5.85
1.58
0.23
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
64
Aryna Sabalenka
1911.4
94.15
80.27
56.38
35.37
21.43
8.02
4.20
The favorites from the second quarter to reach the semis are:
Paula Badosa 22.84%
Aryna Sabalenka 21.43%
Danielle Collins 12.98%
Daria Kasatkina 9.44%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Daria Kasatkina bt. Paula Badosa
3rd quarter
Ons Jabeur and Maria Sakkari are slated to face each other in the quarterfinals
If it wasn't for Swiatek's legendary winning streak (28), Ons Jabeur's form (Elo 1990) might have been the talk of the town. The Tunisian has looked imperious in the lead-up to the French Open. She made the quarters in Stuttgart, finals in Charleston and Rome, and won the Madrid Masters. Despite having the likes of Petra Kvitova (Elo 1883.3) in her sixteenth of the draw, and Angelique Kerber (Elo 1785.4) and Emma Raducanu (Elo 1702) in her eighth, Jabeur is unlikely to be troubled by any of them on clay.
She is most likely to face 2021 semifinalist Maria Sakkari (Elo 1918.3) in the quarterfinals (13.55% chance). But unlike Jabeur, the Greek hasn't been in great form lately. She might have to deal with Amanda Anisimova (Elo 1886.1) in the third round and Belinda Bencic (Elo 1873.1) in the fourth - both of whom have had a good build-up to the tournament.
Sl No.
Player
Elo
R1 Win%
R2 Win%
R3 Win%
R4 Win%
QF Win%
SF Win%
F Win%
65
Ons Jabeur
1990.0
88.34
80.99
58.62
48.37
33.02
22.47
10.99
66
Magda Linette
1638.3
11.66
6.97
2.10
0.85
0.20
0.05
0.01
67
Martina Trevisan
1603.9
64.14
8.91
2.38
0.85
0.17
0.03
0.00
68
Harriet Dart
1502.9
35.86
3.12
0.56
0.14
0.02
0.00
0.00
69
Valentini Grammatikopoulou
1333.4
25.79
1.51
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
70
Daria Saville
1517.0
74.21
10.99
1.35
0.35
0.05
0.01
0.00
71
Anna Bondar
1690.6
24.80
19.12
4.62
2.19
0.63
0.18
0.03
72
Petra Kvitova
1883.3
75.20
68.37
30.27
21.86
11.86
6.40
2.31
73
Angelique Kerber
1785.4
71.05
59.70
38.74
12.63
5.15
2.09
0.54
74
Magdalena Frech
1629.4
28.95
19.80
8.62
1.53
0.34
0.08
0.01
75
Heather Watson
1527.7
63.26
14.86
4.52
0.51
0.07
0.01
0.00
76
Elsa Jacquemot
1433.3
36.74
5.64
1.15
0.08
0.01
0.00
0.00
77
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
1707.4
65.71
37.44
19.09
4.66
1.44
0.44
0.08
78
Xinyu Wang
1594.4
34.29
14.30
5.25
0.80
0.15
0.03
0.00
79
Linda Noskova
1505.7
24.42
6.97
1.87
0.19
0.02
0.00
0.00
80
Emma Raducanu
1702.0
75.58
41.29
20.76
4.96
1.50
0.45
0.08
81
Belinda Bencic
1873.1
91.26
59.37
39.81
20.57
9.84
5.17
1.81
82
Reka-Luca Jani
1465.7
8.74
1.56
0.27
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
83
Bianca Andreescu
1795.5
86.37
37.32
21.20
8.72
3.32
1.39
0.37
84
Ysaline Bonaventure
1474.7
13.63
1.75
0.31
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
85
Katerina Siniakova
1786.3
50.60
33.56
14.58
5.82
2.15
0.87
0.22
86
Petra Martic
1782.1
49.40
32.50
13.93
5.49
2.00
0.80
0.20
87
Kristina Mladenovic
1622.9
39.58
11.21
2.67
0.57
0.12
0.03
0.00
88
Leylah Fernandez
1696.4
60.42
22.73
7.24
2.10
0.57
0.17
0.03
89
Amanda Anisimova
1886.1
61.30
50.04
26.95
16.28
8.06
4.38
1.60
90
Naomi Osaka
1806.2
38.70
28.63
12.38
6.12
2.41
1.04
0.29
91
Mirjam Bjorklund
1354.8
15.13
0.82
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
92
Donna Vekic
1654.3
84.87
20.51
5.20
1.54
0.35
0.09
0.01
93
Carole Monnet
1289.2
7.02
0.30
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
94
Karolina Muchova
1738.1
92.98
28.95
11.56
4.63
1.46
0.50
0.11
95
Clara Burel
1534.8
9.91
2.74
0.50
0.09
0.01
0.00
0.00
96
Maria Sakkari
1918.3
90.09
68.01
43.34
28.01
15.03
8.83
3.55
The favorites from the third quarter to reach the semis are:
Ons Jabeur 33.02%
Maria Sakkari 15.03%
Petra Kvitova 11.86%
Belinda Bencic 9.84%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Ons Jabeur bt. Amanda Anisimova
4th quarter
Defending French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova returns to action after three months on the sidelines
Barbora Krejcikova (Elo 1913.9) created history last year when she became the first woman since Mary Pierce in 2000 to lift both the singles and doubles titles in Paris. While she had already established herself in doubles by then, her singles victory came as an unseeded player. The Czech hasn't looked back since and is currently ranked No. 2 in the world.
A fit Krejcikova would have undoubtedly gone in as one of the favorites for the title. But the defending champion has been out of action since February, hindered by an elbow injury. It remains to be seen how well she fares in her comeback tournament.
World No. 5 Anett Kontaveit (Elo 1883.3) is second best from this quarter of the draw. But the Estonian doesn't play her best tennis on clay, nor has she had a great run-up to the French Open. Even though her matchup against Krejcikova is the most probable quarterfinal from this section (8.88% chance), it seems considerably distant - especially with the likes of Coco Gauff (Elo 1868.2), Victoria Azarenka (Elo 1860) and former champion Garbine Muguruza (Elo 1894.4) lying in their path.
Sl No.
Player
Elo
R1 Win%
R2 Win%
R3 Win%
R4 Win%
QF Win%
SF Win%
F Win%
97
Anett Kontaveit
1883.3
76.42
64.02
42.99
24.39
13.89
6.69
2.41
98
Ajla Tomljanovic
1679.0
23.58
14.56
5.84
1.77
0.54
0.13
0.02
99
Astra Sharma
1538.8
37.45
6.19
1.46
0.25
0.04
0.00
0.00
100
Varvara Gracheva
1627.9
62.55
15.23
5.12
1.27
0.32
0.06
0.01
101
Lauren Davis
1607.5
39.29
10.39
2.86
0.65
0.15
0.03
0.00
102
Marie Bouzkova
1683.1
60.71
21.52
7.72
2.37
0.73
0.17
0.03
103
Elena-Gabriela Ruse
1705.9
32.77
18.81
7.25
2.42
0.81
0.21
0.04
104
Elise Mertens
1830.7
67.23
49.28
26.76
13.28
6.62
2.72
0.82
105
Coco Gauff
1868.2
87.50
69.11
39.62
23.14
12.71
5.86
2.01
106
Rebecca Marino
1530.1
12.50
4.37
0.79
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.00
107
Alison Van Uytvanck
1631.1
48.06
12.41
3.41
0.96
0.24
0.05
0.01
108
Ann Li
1644.6
51.94
14.11
4.08
1.21
0.32
0.06
0.01
109
Beatriz Haddad Maia
1699.6
82.81
25.13
9.48
3.44
1.13
0.29
0.05
110
Cristina Bucsa
1426.5
17.19
1.48
0.19
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
111
Kaia Kanepi
1737.5
28.84
17.49
7.42
3.05
1.14
0.34
0.07
112
Garbine Muguruza
1894.4
71.16
55.90
35.01
21.63
12.64
6.27
2.34
113
Victoria Azarenka
1860.0
73.77
56.33
37.00
20.20
10.60
4.77
1.60
114
Ana Bogdan
1680.4
26.23
14.13
5.98
1.90
0.55
0.13
0.02
115
Oceane Dodin
1585.4
35.45
7.87
2.42
0.53
0.10
0.02
0.00
116
Andrea Petkovic
1689.5
64.55
21.67
9.43
3.09
0.93
0.23
0.04
117
Olga Danilovic
1602.0
52.36
14.08
3.97
0.93
0.20
0.03
0.00
118
Dalma Galfi
1585.6
47.64
11.97
3.16
0.69
0.14
0.02
0.00
119
Bernarda Pera
1684.2
30.85
19.33
7.32
2.36
0.70
0.17
0.03
120
Jil Teichmann
1824.4
69.15
54.62
30.72
15.33
7.29
2.94
0.87
121
Sorana Cirstea
1730.4
74.85
38.99
13.41
5.71
2.01
0.58
0.12
122
Tatjana Maria
1540.9
25.15
6.80
1.11
0.23
0.04
0.01
0.00
123
Sloane Stephens
1748.3
62.21
36.49
13.33
6.00
2.24
0.69
0.15
124
Jule Niemeier
1661.7
37.79
17.72
4.76
1.61
0.44
0.10
0.02
125
Camila Osorio
1721.3
76.69
22.54
11.54
4.78
1.63
0.45
0.09
126
Harmony Tan
1514.4
23.31
2.98
0.74
0.14
0.02
0.00
0.00
127
Diane Parry
1505.0
8.68
2.47
0.59
0.11
0.01
0.00
0.00
128
Barbora Krejcikova
1913.9
91.32
72.00
54.51
36.39
21.77
11.38
4.51
The favorites from the fourth quarter to reach the semis are:
Barbora Krejcikova 21.77%
Anett Kontaveit 13.89%
Coco Gauff 12.71%
Garbine Muguruza 12.64%
Author's predicted quarterfinal: Garbine Muguruza bt. Victoria Azarenka
French Open 2022 semifinals and finals forecast
The favorites from the top half to reach the final are:
Iga Swiatek 47.81%
Paula Badosa 8.98%
Simona Halep 8.51%
Aryna Sabalenka 8.02%
Danielle Collins 4.21%
Karolina Pliskova 4.04%
Daria Kasatkina 2.85%
Veronika Kudermetova 2.29%
Author's predicted semifinal: Iga Swiatek bt. Daria Kasatkina
The favorites from the bottom half to reach the final are:
Ons Jabeur 22.47%
Barbora Krejcikova 11.38%
Maria Sakkari 8.83%
Anett Kontaveit 6.69%
Coco Gauff 5.86%
Garbine Muguruza 6.27%
Petra Kvitova 6.4%
Victoria Azarenka 4.77%
Author's predicted semifinal: Ons Jabeur bt. Garbine Muguruza
The favorites to lift the Roland Garros title are:
Iga Swiatek 37.91%
Ons Jabeur 10.99%
Paula Badosa 4.91%
Simona Halep 4.86%
Barbora Krejcikova 4.51%
Aryna Sabalenka 4.2%
Maria Sakkari 3.55%
Anett Kontaveit 2.41%
Author's predicted final: Iga Swiatek bt. Ons Jabeur
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