French Open 2024: Analysing Rafael Nadal's chances at his last ever Roland Garros

For the first time in his career, Rafael Nadal will not start as the favorite to win the French Open. The Spaniard has won Roland Garros a staggering 14 times, however, his current form is far from ideal.

For starters, the Spanish star has been ridden with injuries over the past year and struggled for any kind of form in 2024. Nadal's aging body has not allowed him to compete as fiercely as he did in the past and he has admitted that 2024 could be his last season playing professional tennis.

To add to Nadal's agony, the Spaniard has been handed a brutal French Open draw that could see him exit the tournament as early as the first round, something that would be unthinkable for the 22-time Grand Slam champion.

Rafael Nadal will face World No. 4, Alexander Zverev in the first round at Roland Garros. This will be a replay of the thrilling 2022 semi-final between the duo when Zverev retired due to an injury. Until his ankle injury in the second set of that match, the German star was taking the game to Nadal and felt that he could have won that match.

On this occasion, however, Zverev will be full of confidence going into the French Open. The German is fresh from winning the Italian Open and will come to Paris in fine form. He has a history of performing well on clay having won 7 of his 21 trophies on the surface.

Even if Nadal manages to beat Zverev, it will take a lot out of the Spaniard, physically. After the initial Zverev test, Nadal could potentially face David Goffin in the second round, which could be a relatively easy win.

A Dutch test will await in the third round where Nadal could face Tallon Griekspoor. The Dutchman reached his highest ranking of 21 in 2023 and has been in fine form throughout the season. This will not be a straightforward match for Nadal who will be already physically exhausted after the first two rounds.

Rafael Nadal is set to face either Karen Khachanov or Holger Rune in the fourth round. While both of these players are capable of beating any opponent on any given day, their form has been unpredictable over the last few months. The draw could get difficult for Nadal if he manages to move past the fourth round in Paris.

Rafael Nadal could face Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic on his way to the French Open final

In the unlikely scenario that Nadal makes it to the quarterfinals of the French Open, he is expected to face a familiar foe in Daniil Medvedev. Despite claiming that he does not enjoy playing on clay surfaces, Medvedev could provide a threat to the Spaniard with his big serves and agility.

Rafael Nadal defeated Novak Djokovic at the French Open 2022

If, and it's a big if, Nadal does manage to make his way to the semi-final, the Spaniard will reignite his rivalry with Novak Djokovic. The two of the greatest players of all time last met each other in the quarterfinals of the French Open in 2022. Nadal won the match 6-2,4-6,6-2,7-6(4) on his way to the Roland Garros title.

If Nadal does manage to beat Djokovic, he will play either Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner in the final in Paris. While it is highly unlikely that Nadal will make it to the final, a potential clash against Sinner or Alcaraz could prove to be tricky given the form and fitness levels of the two youngsters.

Rafael Nadal's realistic chance at the French Open

Even the most optimistic Nadal fans will be worried about the Spaniard at the French Open 2024. The 37-year-old has been handed a tough draw which could see him being eliminated in the first round itself. Nadal being knocked out in the first round of his last-ever Roland Garros would be a tough pill to swallow but that's the nature of the sport.

Even if the Spaniard manages to get past Zverev, he is set to face many challenges that might take a toll on his aging body. It is tough to see Nadal make the semi-finals and the Spaniard could be set for an early exit at the French Open.

Rafael Nadal needs a miracle in Paris to claim the title. However, no one can ever count out Nadal, especially on the clay courts of the French Open. The Spaniard will have to use his history and experience and ride a bit of luck if he has any chance of success at Roland Garros.

Realistic prediction: Loses in the first round to Alexander Zverev in four sets

Hopeful prediction: Makes it to the semifinals and loses to Novak Djokovic in a thrilling five-setter.

Wild prediction: He goes on to win a 15th French Open title to bow out in style at the French Open.