French Open 2024: Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Roland Garros

Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi is one of the third-round matches at the French Open
Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi is one of the third-round matches at the French Open

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi

Date: May 31, 2024

Tournament: French Open 2024

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Stade Roland Garros, Paris

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Clay

Prize money: €24,961,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+


Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi preview

Andrey Rublev in action at the French Open
Andrey Rublev in action at the French Open

Sixth seed Andrey Rublev will face Matteo Arnaldi in the third round of the French Open on Friday, May 31. The Russian entered the claycourt Major after a third-round exit at the Italian Open.

Rublev started the tournament with a hard-fought 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5 win over Taro Daniel. He then faced Pedro Martinez in the second round and won the opening set after a solitary break in the sixth game.

Both players exchanged breaks early in the second set, but Rublev broke Martinez in the seventh game to take a two-set lead. The Russian's level continued in the third set as he broke Martinez twice to register a 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 win and book his place in the third round of the French Open.

Meanwhile, Matteo Arnaldi entered the Paris Major after a quarterfinal exit at a Challenger Tournament in Turin. The 23-year-old faced 29th seed Arthur Fils in the first round and produced a fine performance to beat the Frenchman 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 and register one of the upsets of the opening round.

Arnaldi then locked horns with another Frenchman, Alexander Muller, in the second round. The first set saw a few service breaks, but the Italian kept his nerve and won it 6-4.

He dominated the second set to win it 6-1. Muller tried to fight his way back into the match and broke serve in the opening game of the third set before saving two break points to hold serve. Arnaldi, though, broke the Frenchman twice to take a 4-2 lead.

Muller had six break points in the next game, but the Italian saved them all to hold serve and lead 5-2. The Frenchman saved three match points, but Arnaldi was not to be denied as he registered a 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 win to reach the third round of the French Open for the first time.


Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head

Rublev leads 1-0 in their head-to-head, having previously beaten Arnaldi 7-5, 6-3 in the second round of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna.


Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Andrey Rublev-375-1.5 (-175)Over 37.5 (-120)
Matteo Arnaldi+275+1.5 (+125)Under 37.5 (-115)

All odds are sourced from BETMGM.


Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction

Rublev will enter as the favorite, but Arnaldi plays his best tennis on clay, so he cannot be written off.

The Russian has a very strong serve that fetched him 27 aces. His forehand and backhand are both highly effective weapons. The Russian hit 135 winners compared to 68 unforced errors. While he deploys a hugely aggressive game, Rublev's unforced-error count has been considerably less over the last 15 months or so.

Arnaldi loves to play from the baseline and hits his shots with great power. However, he can defend well and transition qulickly from defense to offense. The Italian has had some good performances but will have to be at his lethal best to come out on top.

While Arnaldi is no slouch, Andrey Rublev looks in spectacular form, and there's a good chance of him getting the win and reaching the fourth round of the French Open.

Pick: Andrey Rublev in straight-sets

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