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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Iga Swiatek vs (12) Jasmine Paolini
Date: June 8, 2024
Tournament: French Open 2024
Round: Final
Venue: Stade Roland Garros, Paris
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: €53,478,000
Live Channel: USA - Tennis Channel | UK- Sky Sports | Canada- TSN+
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini preview
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is just one win away from a fourth French Open title. Standing between her and the Suzanne-Lenglen Cup is 12th seed Jasmine Paolini.
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The Pole entered the clay-court Major as the two-time defending champion and on the heels of two WTA 1000 titles on clay at Madrid and Rome. She started her title defense strongly with a 6-1, 6-1 win over French qualifier Leolia Jeanjean before edging out Naomi Osaka 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5.
Swiatek dropped only eight games in her next three wins, which included a double bagel over Anastasia Potapova in the third round. After beating Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2 in the quarterfinals, she faced Coco Gauff in the semifinals and continued her dominance over the American, beating her 6-2, 6-4 to reach her third successive French Open final.
Paolini's most notable achievement so far in 2024 has been winning her maiden WTA 1000 title at the Dubai Tennis Championships, and she entered the French Open with just four wins out of seven clay-court matches.
The 28-year-old started the tournament with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Daria Saville before triumphing 6-4, 7-6(6) against Hailey Baptiste to reach the third round. Here, she was given a tough fight in the second set by Bianca Andreescu before defeating the Canadian 6-1, 3-6, 6-0.
Paolini then came back from a set down to defeat Elena Avanesyan 4-6, 6-0, 6-1 and reach her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal. Here, she created a major upset by defeating fourth seed Elena Rybakina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 and set up a semifinal clash against Mirra Andreeva.
Paolini was dominant throughout the match as she beat the Russian by a comfortable 6-3, 6-1 scoreline and became the first Italian to reach the French Open final since Sara Errani in 2012.
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini head-to-head
Swiatek holds a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head record on the WTA Tour, having beaten the Italian 6-3, 6-0 in the first round of the 2022 US Open.
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini prediction
Swiatek has been in imperious form and dropped just eight games against two Top-5 seeds in her last two matches. Hence, the odds will undoubtedly favor her. Having said that, Paolini herself has looked in good touch over the past 11 days and made easy work of Mirra Andreeva in her semifinal. So, she should not be written off just yet.
The Pole, however, hit 14 unforced errors in comparison to ten winners during her semifinal against Coco Gauff. This was the first time in the tournament that she had more unforced errors than winners. She also won 64.3% of her first serves (27 out of 42), which was her lowest percentage during the tournament.
However, Swiatek on clay has been a completely different species in 2024. Her movement, intensity and swift transitions from defense to offense will undoubtedly be difficult for Paolini to handle.
The 28-year-old won 66.67% of her points on first serve in her semifinal against Andreeva but will need to be as effective on it as she can against someone like Swiatek.
Paolini loves to play aggressively and she will have to fire all guns blazing from the very first point. She is also a good mover on clay and her resilience will definitely come into play while dealing with Swiatek.
While the Italian has impressed us with her performance, anything other than a Swiatek win at this point seems unrealistic, and the Pole should be able to leave the Stade Roland Garros with a fourth French Open title.
Pick: Swiatek to win in straight sets.
