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After a strong finish to his 2024 season, World No. 2 Alexander Zverev continued his good run of form this year as well. While his United Cup campaign came to an abrupt end due to an injury, which also led to Germany's exit, he bounced back with a deep run at the Australian Open.
Zverev advanced to the final for the first time Down Under, and for the third time at a Major. He came up short yet again as he lost to defending champion Jannik Sinner in straight sets. Nevertheless, he gained some additional ranking points thanks to his run to the final, and had 8,135 points to his name after the conclusion of the season's first Major.
Sinner, the top-ranked player, remained comfortably perched atop the summit with 11,830 points. However, there was a major twist in the tale as the Italian was handed a three-month ban related to his positive tests for a prohibited substance last year. With him out of the way, Zverev had a strong chance of replacing his younger rival at the top.
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However, Zverev's quest to attain the No. 1 ranking has gone off the rails with his subpar results after the Australian Open. He usually competes on hardcourts in February, and this time he opted to give clay a chance, and headed to South America for the same.
Zverev first participated in the Argentina Open, an ATP 250 event, and was knocked out by Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinals. He then headed to the capital city of Brazil for the Rio Open, and fell at the quarterfinal stage yet again, with Francisco Comesana being responsible for his exit. He was the only top 10 player participating in both tournaments, and as such was the top choice to win at least either tournament, if not both.
Zverev continued his trek through South America and arrived in Acapulco for the Mexican Open, a hardcourt tournament. The ATP 500 event had a strong field, with another two 10 players and a few top 20 players. The German suffered his earliest exit of the season as rising young star Learner Tien beat him 6-3, 6-4 in the second round.
Out of the 1,250 points available to him at these three tournaments, Zverev managed to accumulate only 200 points. The short turnaround from clay to hardcourt also played a role in his early exit from the Mexican Open. Perhaps if he had stuck to his usual schedule and participated in a couple of hardcourt events instead of the ones on clay, then the outcome could've been different.
Instead, his confidence has suffered a blow and he's still considerably behind Sinner when it comes to ranking points. However, all is not lost as there are four Masters 1000 tournaments lined up before the Italian returns from his ban. The competition will be stiff there, which could prevent Zverev from sweeping those tournaments.
Alexander Zverev's quest for the World No. 1 spot will resume at the Indian Wells Masters
Alexander Zverev still has a shot at closing the gap between him and Jannik Sinner. The latter will sit out the next four Masters 1000 tournaments as a result of his ban. March will mark the start of a hectic schedule for the men, beginning with the Indian Wells Masters next week.
Sinner made the semifinals in the California desert last year, and won the Miami Open after that. He will drop 1,400 points as a result of his absence this year, leaving the door open for Zverev to make his move. The German made the last eight at the Indian Wells Masters last year, and went a round further in Miami. He's defending 600 points at these two tournaments, and can add another 1,400 points if he wins both of them.
However, completing the "Sunshine Double", winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, isn't an easy task. Only seven men have done it in the past, and Novak Djokovic was the most recent player to do so, and he did it for three years in a row from 2014 to 2016.
Sinner will have 9,930 points after the Miami Open. Zverev will be around 400 points behind him if he sweeps Indian Wells and Miami. However, he hasn't advanced beyond the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, so it will be an uphill battle for him to overturn his poor record there. He was the runner-up in Miami in 2018, so there's potential for him to perform better there.
Early exits from the Masters 1000 tournaments in March would put him at a huge disadvantage heading into the next two tournaments, the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Madrid Open. While he hasn't won the former tournament, he has hoisted the winner's trophy twice at the latter tournament. If he arrives on clay on the heels of disappointing results, then it's quite unlikely that he will dislodge Sinner from the top spot.
Nevertheless, those two tournaments will be Zverev's last shot at trying to capture the top spot. He's the defending champion at the Italian Open, where Sinner will make his comeback, and was the runner-up at the French Open last year, which means more points to defend this year.
A Major title and the No. 1 ranking are the only two achievements missing from Zverev's resume. He has positioned himself well enough to accomplish the latter, and he's fully in control of his destiny here. If he raises his level over the next few weeks, then he still has a shot at ascending to the top of the rankings.
