How Iga Swiatek's World No. 1 ranking could be under threat with the rise of Aryna Sabalenka

Iga Swiatek’s dominance in 2022 had been so thorough that the idea of anybody replacing her as the World No. 1 seemed far-fetched. The rise of Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, however, could be a real threat for the Pole, who faces the fast-approaching possibilty of losing her top spot.

Iga Swiatek ascended the World No. 1 throne on 4 April 2022 by default, following Ashleigh Barty’s retirement. She, however, backed it up by producing outstanding results throughout the year.

With highlights such as a 37-match winning streak, nine finals and eight titles - including two Grand Slams and four WTA 1000s - the 21-year-old accumulated 11,085 year-end ranking points and a staggering lead of more than 6,000 points over the then World No. 2 Ons Jabeur.

2023, however, has been a different story. The once invincible Iga Swiatek has looked conquerable against the likes of Sabalenka, Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Barbora Krejcikova in the deep stages of tournaments. That quartet of players has emerged as a threat to the Pole in the rankings as well.

With 9,625 total ranking points to her name after her loss to Aryna Sabalenka in the Madrid Open final, Swiatek currently holds a lead of 1,744 points over the World No. 2. It is also worth noting that the 21-year-old is gearing up for the mammoth task of defending 3,000 points, as the reigning champion at the Italian Open and Roland Garros, in the coming weeks.

Aryna Sabalenka, meanwhile, has no more than 520 points to guard at these events. And given her recent form, the 25-year-old is expected to go far at both places.

In the ongoing claycourt season itself, Sabalenka has earned 1,305 points against the Pole’s 1,150, thanks to their finals appearances in Stuttgart and Madrid. The Belarusian is closing the gap, and the possibility of her snatching the World No. 1 spot from Iga Swiatek as early as after the French Open cannot be ruled out.

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Iga Swiatek ranks third in WTA's live Race to the Finals, Aryna Sabalenka leads

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Iga Swiatek in the recently concluded Madrid Open

It is worth noting that Australian Open champion and Indian Wells runner-up Aryna Sabalenka holds the top spot in the live Race to the WTA Finals. She has a hefty tally of 4,830 ranking points after her latest Madrid Open win against Iga Swiatek.

Indian Wells champion and Australian Open & Miami Open runner-up Elena Rybakina comes in second with a total of 3,276 points this year. The Kazakh is making a statement in the rankings despite being denied 2,000 ranking points from her 2022 Wimbledon victory. She will be seen holding a new career-high spot of World No. 6 come Monday.

Meanwhile, Qatar and Stuttgart winner Swiatek, who also finished as the runner-up in Dubai and Madrid, ranks third in the race. She has 2,930 points accumulated so far this season – a 1900-point deficit from Sabalenka.