How Novak Djokovic's ongoing vaccination saga affects qualification spots in Indian Wells

As things stand, Novak Djokovic is part of the line-up at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters despite not being eligible to enter the United States because of the existing vaccine mandate in the country.

Main draw action at the ATP 1000 event is slated to begin on March 10 (Thursday), with qualifying commencing on March 8. The draw for the qualifiers is expected to be announced shortly prior to that, and odds are that the World No. 2 will not announce his withdrawal by then.

At the outset, it does not look like that big of a deal. For starters, most of the big players will already be part of the tournament. The Indian Wells Masters has a 96-player draw, meaning that the first 32 eligible players in the ATP rankings are seeded and get a bye into the second round. The next 44 players (assuming no one opts out) are assured places in the first round as unseeded players.

Five places are taken up by players with wildcards and three spots are taken up by players with protected rankings. The remaining 12 spots are reserved for qualifiers, with 48 players competing. The first 24 players (as per their ranking on the cut-off date) are seeded in the qualifying draw, and the final 12 are decided after two rounds of qualifying.

According to the ATP tour's official rulebook, a player will not be considered withdrawn until a written statement of withdrawal is received prior to the deadline. This means that unless Djokovic communicates to the association that he is opting out of the Indian Wells Masters, he does not lose his spot in the tournament.

If he pulls out of the tournament after the draw is made, his spot will be taken up by a lucky loser from the the list of players who lost out in the second round of qualifiers.

The difference between the first round of the main draw and the second round of qualifying is huge for lower-ranked players (from a financial standpoint).

Screen grab from the ATP rule book regarding player withdrawals

For example, reaching the first round of the main draw guarantees twice the prize money as exiting in the second round of qualifying -- $18,200 as opposed to $9,110. In terms of ranking points, making the first round will give an additional 10 points.

Similarly, even a player who loses in the first round of qualifying will receive prize money of $4,785. Since the Serb's withdrawal is not official, that money will not go to a player just outside the rankings cut-off for the qualifying rounds.

Novak Djokovic's visa fiasco during 2022 Australian Open also resulted in a similar situation

Novak Djokovic's situation during the 2022 Australian Open also followed a similar pattern

Novak Djokovic experienced the same situation during the 2022 Australian Open, where he was removed from the tournament only after the schedule of play was released. The 20-time Grand Slam champion was deported from Australia due to a lack of compliance with the country's vaccination mandate.

Djokovic's place was then taken up by Salvatore Caruso as the lucky loser. Had the former World No. 1 withdrawn prior to the event, the highest-ranked player from the qualifying draw would have made it to the main draw and another player would have gained entry into the qualifiers.

Even more money was at stake during the Melbourne Major, as players stood to gain AUD 25,250 just by losing in the first qualifying round. Meanwhile, the difference between losing in the third round of the qualifiers and the first round of the main draw was an incredible AUD 49,500 (AUD 53,500 as opposed to AUD 103,000).