How Rafael Nadal's Indian Wells withdrawal can help Novak Djokovic break Roger Federer's record

Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal share 13 Indian Wells titles between them. The former two find themselves at a 5-5 deadlock for the most number of trophies at the Masters 1000 event.

Only Djokovic will have a shot at surpassing Federer this year. The Serb returns to the Tennis Paradise after a five-year hiatus, while the Spaniard withdrew from the tournament at the very last minute, citing his inability to get fit in time for the event.

Nadal took to Instagram to break the news of his retirement from the ATP 1000 event.

"It is with great sadness that I have to withdraw from this amazing tournament at Indian Wells," Rafael Nadal wrote. "Everyone knows how much I love this place… I have been working hard and practicing and you all know I took a test this weekend but I don’t find myself ready to play at the highest level at such an important event.”

Nadal had sustained an ankle injury at the Brisbane International back in January and has been on a road to recovery since. He had earlier expressed hope at being fit enough to play at Indian Wells.

That said, the development has made the road to a record-breaking sixth title slightly easier for Novak Djokovic — who was in the same half of the draw as Nadal.

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A loaded Indian Wells top half that featured Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal

Novak Djokovic practicing ahead of Indian Wells return.

It wouldn't be an overstatement to say that Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal will have an impact on the draw.

The Spaniard was not in the best shape coming into the tournament and was not among the favorites to lift the trophy. He, however, still had plenty to worry his opponents.

Nadal had landed in the top half of the men’s draw and was to open his campaign against another returning player — Milos Raonic.

Another big name, Holger Rune, loomed in the second round. Neither player, however, has inspired confidence with their recent showings. Rune opened the season with a run to the finals in Brisbane, but things have gone south for him since.

That said, he is a name that has bothered Djokovic in recent years. The Dane scored a famous win over the Serb in the 2022 Paris Masters final and always finds ways to trouble the World No. 1.

Nadal, however, would have fancied his chances against Rune, whose game is not the best-suited for heavier conditions.

If Nadal were to make the quarterfinals, he would run into Daniil Medvedev, a player that he is much more comfortable playing against than Djokvic. His 5-1 head-to-head comparison against the Russian to Djokovic’s 10-5 stands testament to that.

In essence, the top of this year’s Indian Wells draw would have provided for one-on-one match-ups that are much more comfortable for Nadal than anyone else.

This is even without even mentioning the Spaniard's 59-11 (84%) win-loss at the venue, which is far ahead of anyone except Djokovic who sits at 50-9 (85%).

Nadal, provided that he was 100% fitness-wise, could have well given the fans a semifinal showdown against Novak Djokovic — which in no longer a worry for the Serb.

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Will Novak Djokovic separate himself from Roger Federer for Indian Wells record?

Both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have five Indian Wells titles to his name.

Despite Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, the path to a sixth Indian Wells title that will separate Novak Djokvovic from Roger Federer remains precarious.

As mentioned, the top half is loaded with match-ups that do not always work in the Serb’s favor. And that holds for earlier rounds as well. The likes of Tommy Paul and Hubert Hurkacz have trouble him in recent years and he will need to war at each step.

Across the draw at the bottom lie defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, both of whom are likely to slug it out for a spot in the final.

That said, the worry for Djokovic will be to find his footing at a venue where he has not played in recent years. If he can get into a rhythm early, the Serb could well go on a roll.

The possible semifinal showdown against Daniil Medvedev will be the real test for Novak Djokovic. If the Serb reaches the final, he should be viewed as the favorite. The wounds of having lost failed to defined the Australian Open crown are still fresh and him letting another big title slip out of his hands after getting that close is very unlikely to happen.