Iga Swiatek at Australian Open 2025: Will United Cup fatigue once again lead to a disappointing early exit?

United States beat Poland 2-0 in the United Cup final last Sunday, January 6, in Sydney to win their second title. Both Iga Swiatek, the world No. 1 among women, and Hubert Hurkacz lost their respective singles matches to concede defeat.

While that defeat was disappointing in itself, what might have been even more concerning for Swiatek was the fatigue the tournament caused to her. This in turn, might jeopardize her chances at the upcoming Australian Open, too.

Iga Swiatek is probably not the best female player on hard courts:

While the 23-year-old Pole is the best player among women on clay by some distance, she is not probably the best on hard courts. That crown should probably go to Aryna Sabalenka, as she has been more consistent on the surface in the recent past.

Only one of Swiatek's five Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts. She won the US Open title in 2022, but has not been able to win the title in Melbourne yet. Swiatek had a win-loss record of 30-5 on hard courts in 2024, while Sabalenka's record read 38-7. Sabalenka's record thus is slightly superior and she also won both the hard-court Grand Slams last year.

Swiatek should also be somewhat exhausted after her gruelling matches with Karelina Muchova, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff. The same happened last year, too, when Poland finished runners-up to Germany and subsequently, Swiatek lost in the third round of the Australian Open to Linda Noskova.

However, the same applies to other top players like Gauff and Rybakina as well. Both participated at the United Cup and had their share of tough matches. Sabalenka, who won the title at Brisbane International recently, will also be fatigued, but will at least have the motivation of having won a title.

Can Swiatek win her maiden Australian Open title this year?

The Pole's groundstrokes, particularly her forehand, while characterized by significant topspin, sometimes lack the necessary power to consistently overpower opponents. This can hinder her ability to dictate play and execute effective crosscourt winners

In comparison, the likes of Gauff and Sabalenka hit their strokes flatter and usually have more chances of hitting through their opponents. Hence, they have more chances of being successful on hard courts.

Still, it cannot be forgotten that the Pole won a couple of titles in hard courts last year (in Doha and Indian Wells). She will definittely be a force to reckon with at the Australian Open, but the fatigue might very well cost her the title.