Iga Swiatek's China Open withdrawal: Here's how Aryna Sabalenka can seize the golden opportunity to end the year as World No. 1

World No. 1 and defending champion Iga Swiatek has pulled out of the upcoming China Open in Beijing. She's set to lose 1000 points as a result, which could put her stay atop the rankings in jeopardy. Aryna Sabalenka has already closed the gap thanks to her US Open triumph, and this gives her another opening to make her move.

Swiatek currently has 10,885 points, while Sabalenka has 8,716 points. After the China Open, the former's tally will stand at 9,885 points, while the latter could increase her total to 9501, provided she wins the title. On the other hand, she could drop a few points as well if she crashes out early.

Sabalenka is defending quarterfinal points this year, and if she exits without winning a single match, then she will be left with 8,501 points. She has historically never performed that well at the China Open. She has a 5-3 record at the venue and hasn't advanced beyond the quarterfinals thus far.

However, the Belarusian is currently on a 12-match winning streak. She won the Cincinnati Open and carried that form over to the US Open to claim her third Major title. This seems like her best bet to overturn her rather poor record in Beijing.

Even if Sabalenka wins the title, her job would be half done. She would still be a few points shy of overtaking Swiatek, though she could get the job done at the Wuhan Open. She's the two-time defending champion there, though the last time the tournament was held was in 2019.

If Sabalenka maintains her unbeaten record at the Wuhan Open, then she could dislodge Swiatek from the summit, unless Swiatek reaches the final. If the latter loses early, then it would be quite difficult for her to maintain her hold on the top spot as she's defending 1,500 points at the WTA Finals as well.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, is defending only 625 points at the year-end championships. Thus, the China Open is quite pivotal in her goal to capture the top ranking and end the season as the World No. 1. If she goes far in Beijing, and follows it up with a deep run in Wuhan as well, then her odds of ascending to the top remain quite high.

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Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek to battle it out for the year-end No. 1 ranking for the second year in a row

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka at the Italian Open 2024. (Photo: Getty)

The battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking is likely to go down to the wire once again, with Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka vying for the top honors for the second year in a row. The two were engrossed in a compelling battle for the top spot last year, which was decided in the season's final match.

Sabalenka ended Swiatek's reign at the top after her runner-up finish at the US Open. The latter made it a mission to reclaim her position atop the throne. The Pole put herself in a solid position by winning the China Open.

The year-end No. 1 ranking would then be decided at the WTA Finals. Swiatek needed to win the tournament without losing a single match in the round-robin stage. Sabelenka, meanwhile, needed to go a round further than her rival.

Swiatek made it through the group stage without a loss, while Sabalenka won two of her group matches. As a result, the two ended up colliding in the semifinals, and the Pole won the match 6-3, 6-2.

However, Swiatek wasn't in the clear just yet. Awaiting her in the final was Jessica Pegula, and she needed to beat her as well. She handed the American a 6-1, 6-0 beatdown to win her first title at the WTA Finals, and reclaimed the No. 1 ranking as well. She ended the year ranked atop the leaderboard for the second year in a row.

Sabalenka's reign as the numero uno player in the world lasted for eight weeks. She controlled her own destiny last year, and had she beaten Swiatek, then she would have remained on top until March this year at the very least. She's in a similar position this year.

Sabalenka has done the groundwork by bridging the gap between her and Swiatek in terms of points. If she continues her good run of form, then there's no stopping her from overtaking Swiatek this time.