Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka: Can the Pole be dethroned as the World No. 1 in February?

Iga Swiatek has been atop the WTA rankings for a better part of the last two years, aside from a brief eight-week spell when Aryna Sabalenka reigned supreme. The former currently has 9770 points, while the latter trails her with 8905 points.

Swiatek lost in the third round at the Australian Open and failed to add any more points to her total. Sabalenka, on the other hand, mounted a successful title defense there to remain hot on her younger rival's tail.

The race for the No. 1 spot is set to heat up in the coming weeks. The two are set to compete in the Qatar Open, starting from February 12, where Swiatek is the two-time defending champion.

While the tournament is a WTA 1000 event this year, it was only a WTA 500 last year. Swiatek is thus defending just 470 points, while Sabalenka skipped the previous edition and has no points to back up.

After deducting those points from Swiatek's current tally, she'll be left with 9300 points. If she manages to reach the final, she'll remain as the World No. 1 even if Sabalenka wins the title.

If Swiatek bows out in the semifinals, then Sabalenka must lift the trophy to clinch the top ranking. Should the former exit in the quarterfinals or before, then simply reaching the final is enough for the latter to overtake her.

But Swiatek has played some of her best tennis at the Qatar Open. She won the title last year for the loss of just five games across three matches. An early exit seems quite unlikely, so the battle for the top spot could continue at the Dubai Tennis Championships too.

1000 points are up for grabs in Dubai as well. Swiatek was the finalist at the venue last year and has to defend 585 points, while Sabalenka has 190 points to defend. In all, the Pole has to worry about 1095 points during the Middle East swing, while the Belarusian has a measly 190 points to be concerned with.

Sabalenka has the advantage here as she's bound to gain more points than Swiatek over the next fortnight, provided she performs well. As for the Pole, she'll need to win at least one of her next two events and hope for her challenger to stumble early.

But the fight for the top ranking won't conclude any time soon. The two have proven to be the best players on the women's side over the last couple of years and they'll duke it out for the top spot in March too.

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Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka's tussle for the World No. 1 ranking will resume in the US

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek at the 2023 WTA Finals.

The battle for the top spot will reignite once again after the Middle East swing. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are both scheduled to participate in the Indian Wells Open and the Miami Open for now.

While Sabalenka has the edge in February, Swiatek has the upper hand in March. The former was the runner-up and quarterfinalist in Indian Wells and Miami, respectively. As such, she has 865 points to defend.

Swiatek only made it to the last four at the Indian Wells Open, which fetched her 390 points. She had to give the Miami Open a miss due to an injury, so this time she's only going to add points and not lose any.

Should Swiatek come out on top in February itself, she'll be in a great spot to remain as the numero uno player in March and after that too. The clay season is her favorite part of the year and while she's defending a lot of points, she'll be backed to safeguard them.

As for Sabalenka, the key will be to perform strongly during the two Middle East events and ascend to the top. It'll give her a slight cushion in terms of points when it comes to the US tournaments.

While Sabalenka has had decent success on the red dirt, she has been a bit inconsistent on the surface too. It was only last year that she made it past the third round of the French Open for the first time.

While the Belarusian has won the Madrid Open twice in the past, she has lost in the first round every other time. But given Sabalenka's newfound confidence, she could have an even better clay swing than last year.

Swiatek and Sabalenka have clearly distanced themselves from the pack. Their rivalry is certainly good for the tour and will make for some exciting times in the coming months.