Indian Wells 2025: 3 biggest takeaways from men's singles draw ft. Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz

As the tennis season moves into March, the tour shifts to Indian Wells in the United States. Awaiting us are two massive events, popularly called the Sunshine Double due to their sunny locations.

The first of these is the Indian Wells Masters, which is one of the most popular events among players due to the amazing facilities and the high standards that the event adheres to. Players love coming here to compete, and this year's edition promises to be very interesting.

The draw has been released, and there are a few things that can be concluded from it as we bring out the three biggest takeaways from the men's singles draw, featuring former champion Novak Djokovic, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, and two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev.

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1. Novak Djokovic won't win the Indian Wells event

BNP Paribas Open 2024 - Day 9 - Source: Getty

This will hardly be shocking for anybody who has followed tennis more closely recently, but it's very unlikely that Novak Djokovic will do much at this event. The Serbian didn't play badly any time he played this year, but he did play badly last year at the event.

It's not really a type of court that suits Djokovic all too well, especially not against some of the biggest hitters in the sport. It's a slow and relatively high-bouncing hard court, which will allow players to attack him.

Doha is kind of similar, and he struggled greatly against Matteo Berrettini and his forehand. That's likely going to happen against somebody like Carlos Alcaraz, whom he beat once already this year at the Australian Open.

Djokovic also generally hasn't really looked as sharp at the Masters level for a while, even though he did make the Shanghai Masters final. It's simply not the event, and he's got a tough draw.

A second-round matchup with Nick Kyrgios is looming, with potential opponents down the line being Francisco Cerundolo and Alex de Minaur, neither of which will be easy for him.

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2. Daniil Medvedev won't make the final again

Daniil Medvedev stood in the final of this event for two years in a row. He played in the 2023 final, losing to Carlos Alcaraz, and also in 2024, where he again was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz. It's very unlikely that he will make the final this year because his level has been very up and down this year.

There is also the doubt that he really doesn't enjoy playing in Indian Wells, even though he has two finals in a row. When we look at his draw, it's a very tricky one, and it's not impossible for him to get beaten by one of these players.

The second round will see him face either Nishesh Basavareddy or Bu Yunchaeote. Alex Michelsen is waiting down the line, with either Tommy Paul or Jiri Lehecka waiting later. Both of them have enough power to hit through Medvedev, which is why he's unlikely to make another final.

Hitting through him is exactly how Alcaraz has been able to beat him on these courts in the past, so overall, the combination of his volatile level, the clearly elevated level of frustration and anxiety in his play, and the tough draw make it very unlikely to happen.

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3. Carlos Alcaraz will win the event again

With Jannik Sinner not playing at the event this year, Carlos Alcaraz is the top favorite to get it done. In some ways, he was going to be the top favorite anyway because he has a 16-2 record all-time at the event, winning it back to back in 2023 and 2024.

It's a type of court that Alcaraz likes very much. Slow hard court is where he's been really good for a while. Besides playing well in Indian Wells, he's also done well in Rotterdam, which he won this year in his debut appearance. He won Beijing last year, outlasting Sinner, who basically didn't lose on hard courts at all in 2024.

It's because the courts allow him to employ both his devastating power and his quickness, being able to cover the court at an impossible level. That just makes him a machine on a court like this, and the higher bounce helps as well because it mimics clay where he's also been very good.

The only player who has given him trouble on these courts is Jannik Sinner, and he's not there this year. Other players like Fritz or Paul can give him trouble, but it's expected that Alcaraz will approach the matchup with massive confidence considering how well he's played here.

The draw he got is tough but not impossible. Quentin Halys is not a massive problem. Shapovalov is very beatable even with the improved form. Dimitrov and Korda are tough but are also beatable and quite streaky. Then it's Novak Djokovic, who has proven a problem for him recently, but it's one he can win.

If he wins all of those, he should be on a roll and likely cruise to a 3rd consecutive trophy at the event.