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Match Details
Fixture: (7) Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi
Date: March 8, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi preview
Seventh seed Andrey Rublev will take on Matteo Arnaldi in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open. Whoever wins, will face either 32nd seed Brandon Nakashima or Rinky Hijikata in the third round of the Masters 1000 event.
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Rublev had a poor start to 2025, losing his first two matches in Hong Kong and the Australian Open. The Russian then endured semifinal and quarterfinal exits in Marseille and Rotterdam before delivering a tremendous performance at the Qatar Open in Doha. He overcame some tough opponents in Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jack Draper to win his sixth ATP 500 title.
However, this was followed by a disappointing first-round exit at the Dubai Tennis Championships, where Rublev lost 6-3, 4-6, 6-7(5) to Quentin Halys. The Russian received a bye to the second round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells by virtue of his seeding.
Matteo Arnaldi has won six out of 11 matches so far this season, producing some decent performances during the North American hard-court tournaments earlier this year. The 24-year-old reached the quarterfinals of the Dallas Open before making it to the semifinals of the Delray Beach Open.
At the latter tournament, Arnaldi beat the likes of Learner Tien and Brandon Nakashima before losing to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. After this, the Italian suffered an opening-round defeat to Alexander Zverev at the Mexican Open.
Arnaldi entered Indian Wells unseeded and faced Aleksandar Kovacevic in the opening round. The 24-year-old stared well and took the first set 6-3. However, the American bounced back to take the second set 7-5 and force the match into a decider. The Italian eventually took the final set to register a 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 win and book his place in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open.
Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head
Rublev currently leads 2-1 in the head-to-head against Arnaldi. The two last locked horns in the semifinals of the Canadian Open last season, with the Russian winning 6-4, 6-2.
Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi odds
All odds sourced from BETMGM.
Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction
While Rublev has had his slip-ups early in 2025, he will be heavily favored to come out on top. That said, the Italian reached the semifinals of a hard-court Masters 1000 event half a year back, so he cannot be written off.
Rublev had an impressive first-set record in his defeat to Quentin Halys at the Dubai Tennis Championships, winning 44 out of 54 points while serving five aces. The Russian has a highly effective serve that can fetch him a lot of free points on the hard courts of Indian Wells. He also has one of the best forehands on the ATP Tour at present and will look to attack and dictate play from the start of the match.
Arnaldi did not have a particularly good record on his first serve during his match against Kovacevic, winning 41 out of 61 points. The Italian served seven aces but also produced six double faults, something he cannot afford to do against Rublev. The 24-year-old has a pretty decent forehand and powerful groundstrokes, which could come in handy in dealing with Rublev's aggression. He also has a versatile backhand that can produce immaculate drop shots to alter the pace of a rally.
While Arnaldi is a pretty formidable opponent, Rublev, if he does not have too many slip-ups, should be able to fetch the win and reach the third round in Indian Wells.
Pick: Rublev to win in straight sets.
