Indian Wells 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Rohit
Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova is one of the quarterfinal matches at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova is one of the quarterfinal matches at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (24) Liudmila Samsonova

Date: March 13, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Quarterfinal

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova preview

Aryna Sabalenka at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Aryna Sabalenka at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on 24th seed Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open 2025.

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Following a first-round bye, Sabalenka commenced her quest for a title with a 7-6 (4), 6-3 win over McCartney Kessler. She cruised past Lucia Bronzetti with a 6-1, 6-2 win to set up a fourth-round showdown against lucky loser Sonay Kartal.

It looked like Sabalenka would be in for a tough time after she dropped her serve in the very first game of the match. However, she quickly dispelled that notion by bagging six games on the trot to take the first set. She didn't loosen her grip on the match in the next set either, breaking Kartal's serve twice to register a 6-1, 6-2 win.

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Samsonova received a bye into the second round, where she defeated Caty McNally 7-6 (8), 6-4. She rallied from a set down to beat compatriot Daria Kasatkina 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the third round. She was up against sixth seed Jasmine Paolini for a spot in the last eight.

The first set was done and dusted rather quickly as Samsonova dished out a bagel to take the lead. The finish line was well within her reach after she went up a double break in the second set. Paolini fought back to reduce her opponent's lead but couldn't completely bridge the deficit. The Russian kept her nose in front until the end for a 6-0, 6-4 win.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova head-to-head

Their rivalry is currently tied at 2-2. Sabalenka won their previous encounter at the Cincinnati Open 2024 in straight sets.


Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Aryna Sabalenka
-525+1.5 (-2000)Over 19.5 (135)
Liudmila Samsonova+375-1.5 (+625)Under 19.5 (-110)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova prediction

Liudmila Samsonova at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Liudmila Samsonova at the BNP Paribas Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Both players put up a commanding display of tennis in the previous round. Samsonova has made the last eight here for the first time, while Sabalenka reached the Indian Wells quarterfinals in 2023. The two are familiar rivals, having contested at least one match a year since 2022.

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Samsonova won their first match in Guadalajara in three sets. Sabalenka avenged that loss with a tight two-set win in Adelaide in 2023. The Russian came out on top in three sets later that year when they crossed paths at the Canadian Open.

Sabalenka played her best match in this rivalry during their most recent meeting at the Cincinnati Open 2024. They locked horns in the quarterfinals, which she won 6-3, 6-2, before lifting the title.

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Both engage in first-strike tennis and use their serve to inflict further damage. Sabalenka's rough patch seems over after a disappointing Middle East swing. Her consistency should trump the threat posed by the big-hitting Samsonova.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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