Indian Wells 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti

Date: March 10, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti preview

Sabalenka at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open (Source: Getty)

Top-seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on Lucia Bronzetti in the third round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open on Monday, March 10. The winner will face either Polina Kudermetova or Sonay Kartal in the next round.

Sabalenka's 2025 season has been a mixed bag so far. She started strongly with a title at the Brisbane International and reaching the final at the Melbourne Major. However, her form declined during the Middle-East Asian swing, where she suffered two losses in three matches.

At the Indian Wells, Sabalenka received a first-round bye, following which she faced America's McCartney Kessler in the second round. The Belarusian was strong with her serves, hitting six aces and winning 86% of her first-serve points, as she defeated the American, 7-6(4), 6-3.

Meanwhile, Bronzetti played five tournaments prior to the BNP Paribas Open. Her best performance came at the Transylvania Open, where she finished runner-up. At the Australian Open, the Italian beat Victoria Azarenka in the opener before losing to Jaqueline Cristian in the second round.

Bronzetti commenced her campaign at the Indian Wells with a 6-4, 7-5 win over Anhelina Kalinina in the first round. She then caused an upset against 30th-seed Magdalena Frech, as she broke her opponent six times to win the match 6-3, 7-5.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti head-to-head

This will be their third meeting on the tour. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2-0. She won their previous encounter at the 2024 US Open, 6-3, 6-1.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Aryna Sabalenka	-1600	+1.5 (-10000)	Over 18.5 (-110)
Lucia Bronzetti	+750	-1.5 (+1150)	Under 18.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Lucia Bronzetti prediction

Bronzetti in action at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open (Source: Getty)

Sabalenka, usually dominant on hardcourts, has a relatively underwhelming record at the Indian Wells. She has got past the fourth round just once in her last three campaigns. However, the quicker conditions this year are proving more favorable for the Belarusian.

Bronzetti will be high on confidence after a comprehensive win over Frech. However, her chances of upsetting the World No. 1 are slim. The Italian has to take the aggressive approach to stand any chance, as her opponent struggles defensively.

Sabalenka enters the match as the clear favorite. She is expected to continue her unbeaten run against the Italian. Her strong serve and aggressive gameplay will prove too daunting for her opponent.

Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.