Indian Wells 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (LL) Sonay Kartal

Date: March 12, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal preview

Aryna Sabalenka in action at the BNP Paribas Open (Image Source: Getty)

Top seed Aryna Sabalenka will face Sonay Kartal in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on March 12. Sabalenka has won 14 out of 17 matches so far in 2025, winning the Brisbane International and reaching the Australian Open.

However, these results were followed by a couple of disappointments during the middle east, as the Belarusian suffered a second-round exit in Qatar while losing in the third round in Dubai. Sabalenka's seeding saw her receive a bye to the second round in Indian Wells and here, she beat McCartney Kessler 7-6(4), 6-3.

Next up for the World No. 1 was Italy's Lucia Bronzetti and she got off to a flyer by taking the first set 6-1. Bronzetti started the second set brilliantly by taking a 2-0 lead before Sabalenka won six games on the trot to register a 6-1, 6-2 victory and book her place in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.

All of Sonay Kartal's main-draw wins in 2025 have come during the WTA 1000 event. Before this, she lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and the Abu Dhabi Open while failing to qualify for the main draw of the Dubai Tennis Championships.

Kartal entered the qualifiers of the BNP Paribas Open but initially failed to make the main draw after losing to Clervie Ngounoue. The Brit eventually qualified as a lucky loser and beat Varvara Lepchenko 7-6(6), 6-2 to set up a second-round clash against 16th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia.

She produced a fine display to beat the Brazilian 6-2, 6-1 and reach the third round in Indian Wells. Here, Kartal faced Polina Kudermetova and saved three set points to take the opening set 7-5. The 23-year-old made a couple of breaks early in the second set and this helped her win it 6-4 and further her stay at the BNP Paribas Open.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal head-to-head

The head-to-head between the two currently stands at 0-0 as they have not had any prior encounters on the WTA Tour.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Game
Aryna Sabalenka
Sonay Kartal

Odds will be updated when available.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Sonay Kartal prediction

Sabalenka will enter the match as the heavy favorite to win but Kartal will be high on confidence after registering three straight-set wins in Indian Wells. So, she cannot be written off.

Sabalenka's first serve numbers have been pretty good so far at the WTA 1000 event, as she has won 52 out of 64 points so far (81.25%). The Belarusian served eight aces from her two matches in Indian Wells and will look to get more of those against Kartal.

Besides an effective serve, Sabalenka is one of the most powerful hitters on the tour and her highly aggressive game coupled with her mentality, will no doubt be a menace for Kartal.

The Brit's first-serve numbers have not been nearly as impressive compared to those of the World No. 1, as she has won 83 out of 125 points (66.4%) during the main draw in Indian Wells so far. While Kartal's morale will be high, she will have to be immensely composed all throughout the match in order to stand a chance against Sabalenka. The 23-year-old may have to produce the performance of her life in order to come out on top.

Sabalenka had her frailties in the middle-east but given her quality, there is a very good chance of her winning the match and reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells for just the second time in her career.

Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.