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Match Details
Fixture: (32) Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi
Date: March 10, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN, TSN
Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi preview
Home favorite Brandon Nakashima will lock horns with Matteo Arnaldi in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open 2025.
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After a first-round bye, Nakashima took on Rinky Hijikata in the second round here. Both players went toe-to-toe for the majority of the opening set. The American nabbed the decisive break of serve towards the end to capture the set. He stamped his authority in the second set, dropping only one game to score a 7-5, 6-1 win.
Arnaldi commenced his Indian Wells campaign with a hard-fought 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 win over Aleksandar Kovacevic. He was up against seventh seed Andrey Rublev for a spot in the third round. The duo started the match by trading service breaks in the first set.
Arnaldi struck once again to go 5-3 up, though he failed to serve out the set in the next game. It didn't turn out to be a big setback as he broke Rublev's serve once again in the 10th game to take the set. The Italian overcame a 3-0 deficit in the second set to level the score. He snagged one final break of serve in the 12th game to wrap up a 6-4, 7-5 win.
Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head
Their rivalry is currently tied at 1-1. Arnaldi won their most recent encounter at last month's Delray Beach Open in two competitive sets.
Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction
Nakashima had a good day on serve in the previous round against Hijikata. He won 77 percent of his first serve points and rained down 14 aces. That's not an easy feat in these conditions. Arnaldi toppled Rublev to claim his first top 10 scalp of the season, and the fourth of his career.
Arnaldi and Nakashima crossed paths a few weeks ago at the Delray Beach Open. The latter failed to make any inroads on the former's serve during the match. He created a single breakpoint opportunity during the entire contest and failed to convert it as well.
Nakashima, a California native, will be keen to avenge that loss with the backing of the home crowd. However, he has never advanced beyond the third round of a Masters 1000 tournament. Arnaldi, meanwhile, has done it twice so far. The Italian has shown that he's ready to perform on the biggest stages, and that could help him tally his second consecutive win over his rival.
Pick: Matteo Arnaldi to win in three sets.
