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Match Details
Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (27) Denis Shapovalov
Date: March 10, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov preview
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will take on 27th seed Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. The winner of the match will face either 14th seed Grigor Dimitrov or Gael Monfils in the fourth round of the Masters 1000 event.
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Alcaraz has won 12 out of 14 matches so far in 2025, winning his maiden indoor title at the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam. Before Indian Wells, the Spaniard competed at the Qatar Open, where he reached the quarterfinals before losing to Jiri Lehecka.
Alcaraz was seeded second in Indian Wells and as a result, received a bye to the second round of the tournament. Here, the 21-year-old faced Quentin Halys and dominated him to win 6-4, 6-2, and qualify for the third round.
Shapovalov has had an impressive start to the 2025 season, winning 11 out of 15 matches so far. The Canadian won his maiden ATP 500 title at the Dallas Open by beating Casper Ruud in the final. He followed this up by reaching the semifinals of the Mexican Open in Acapulco.
Shapovalov reached the second round in Indian Wells via walkover and here, he was up against Australian Open qualifier Adam Walton. The Canadian took the lead in the match by clinching the first set 6-3 and then dominated the second to register a 6-3, 6-2 victory and reach the third round in Indian Wells.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov head-to-head
Alcaraz won the only prior meeting between the two, triumphing 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 in the third round of the 2023 French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov odds
Odds sourced from Oddschecker.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov prediction
Given how Shapovalov has performed lately, Alcaraz is bound to face a tough obstacle in his Indian Wells title defense. The Spaniard was very impressive on his first serve, winning 20 out of 21 points, with seven aces to his name. He also hit 25 winners while producing 18 unforced errors.
Alcaraz's highly aggressive game, serve, agility and precise drop shots make him a menace to play against. Shapovalov's first-serve numbers in his previous match were not as good as that of the Spaniard's, as he won 29 out of 42 points, serving two aces. The Canadian had 26 unforced errors and cannot afford to hit too many of those against Alcaraz.
Shapovalov has a decent serve and loves to play aggressively, with his one-handed backhand being a major asset to his name. Given the attacking styles of both players, it could all come down to composure to decide the match, and given his quality, Alcaraz might just about manage to topple the Canadian and reach the fourth round in Indian Wells.
Pick: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
