Indian Wells 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov preview, head-to-head, prediction and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (14) Grigor Dimitrov

Date: March 12, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, USA

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: US - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov preview

In Picture: Carlos Alcaraz (Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz will take on 14th-seeded Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. Alcaraz has had a mixed-bag season so far in 2025. The Spaniard began the year with a quarterfinal loss to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. The Spaniard came back strong, winning his first title of the year in Rotterdam. However, he once again suffered a shock loss at the Qatar Open, losing to Jiri Lehecka 3-6, 6-3, 4-6 in the last eight.

Being the second seed, the two-time Indian Wells champion got a bye in the first round. He began his title defense with a 6-4, 6-2 win over Quentin Halys. He faced off against in-form 27th-seeded Denis Shapovalov in the third round. In another dominant performance, Alcaraz ran through the Canadian, winning 6-2, 6-4 to keep his title defense on track.

Meanwhile, Grigor Dimitrov's 2025 has been riddled with injuries so far. The Bulgarian reached the semifinal of the Brisbane International but had to retire in his match against Jiri Lehecka. He had two more retirements in the year, one against Francesco Passaro at the Australian Open and another against Christopher O'Connell at the Dubai Tennis Championships.

At Indian Wells, the 14th seed had looked in good form. Being seeded he got an opening round bye. He opened his campaign with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Nuno Borges. In the third round, he had to battle past Gael Monfils, winning 7-6 (4), 4-6, 7-6 (2) in a three-hour-long match.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov head-to-head

The duo have played each other five times, with Alcaraz leading the head-to-head 3-2. The last time they played, Dimitrov won 6-2, 6-4 at the Miami Open last year.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Carlos Alcaraz	TBD	TBD	TBD
Grigor Dimitrov	TBD	TBD	TBD

(Odds will be updated once available)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov prediction

Even though Alcaraz leads the head-to-head, Dimitrov has won both the matches the duo have contested on outdoor hard courts. During their last match at the 2024 Miami Open, Dimitrov put up a clinical display, winning 66 percent and 46 percent of the service and return points respectively compared to Alcaraz's 54 percent and 34 percent of service and return point win rates.

For Alcaraz, the first serve was a big weakness, as the Spaniard could only win 58 percent of his first serve points. He tried to compensate it with his return games, but the Bulgarian was solid behind his own serve.

Alcaraz has made significant modifications to his service motion this season, which has helped the Spaniard put up better-serving numbers so far. Moreover, the second seed has a tremendous record at Indian Wells making him the favorite for the upcoming match. Also, it remains to be seen how Dimitrov recovers for the match, as the Bulgarian already has three retirements this season, and played a long match in the previous round.

Pick- Alcaraz to win in straight sets