Indian Wells 2025: Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open 

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen

Date: March 10, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen preview

Daniil Medvedev in action at the BNP Paribas Open (Image Source: Getty)

Fifth seed Daniil Medvedev will face 31st seed Alex Michelsen in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open on March 10. Whoever wins will face either tenth seed Tommy Paul or Cameron Norrie in the fourth round of the Masters 1000 event.

Medvedev has won nine out of 15 matches so far in 2025, having reached the semifinals of the Open 13 Provence in Marseille and the quarterfinals in Dubai and Doha. The 29-year-old entered Indian Wells after a last-eight exit at the Dubai Tennis Championships at the hands of Tallon Griekspoor.

Medvedev received a bye to the second round of the BNP Paribas Open due to his seeding, and here, he faced Bu Yunchaokete. The Russian put on a dominant display to 6-2, 6-2 and booked his place in the third round of the Masters 1000 event.

Alex Michelsen's 2025 has been promising so far, as he has won 11 out of 18 matches. The American reached the fourth round of the Australian Open, the semifinals of the Delray Beach Open, and the quarterfinals of the ASB Classic.

Michelsen entered the Indian Wells Masters after a second-round exit at the Mexican Open in Acapulco. The 20-year-old received a bye to the second round of the Masters 1000 event due to his seeding. Here, he faced compatriot Colton Smith and took the lead in the match by taking the opening set 6-3.

Michelsen found himself a break down early in the second set, but he bounced back and eventually won it to register a 6-3, 6-4 win and a place in the third round of a Masters 1000 event for the very first time in his career.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen head-to-head

The head-to-head between the two currently stands at 0-0 since they have not had any prior encounters on the ATP Tour.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Daniil Medvedev	-250	-3.5 (-125)	Over 21.5 (-130)
Alex Michelsen	+190	+3.5 (-105)	Under 21.5 (-110)

All odds sourced from Oddschecker.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Alex Michelsen prediction

Generally, Medvedev would be the firm favorite to win, but Michelsen should not be written off given his recent performances, not to forget the Russian's recent frailties.

The Russian was excellent on his first serve during his previous match, winning 19 out of 21 points, with three aces to his name. He has a pretty balanced style of play centered around counterpunching but can always increase his intensity and switch from defense to offense quickly. Medvedev has called the surface on the Indian Wells hard courts slow before, but considering he reached the final here in 2024, there is a good chance of him impressing.

Michelsen's first serve was not as impressive as the Russian's during his second-round fixture, as he won 35 out of 52 points, with two aces to his name. The 20-year-old has a decent serve that has fetched him 24 aces in his last six matches. However, during that time period, he also produced 19 double faults and will have to be careful not to serve too many of those against Medvedev.

From aggression to a lot of stamina, Michelsen has got a game that can see him become a top, top player in the forthcoming years. The American's backhand has been a crucial weapon for him, and he will look to make the most out of it.

While Michelsen has had some really good performances over the past few months, if Medvedev is close to his best, there is a good chance of him coming out on top.

Pick: Medvedev to win in three sets.