Indian Wells 2025: Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Daniil Medvedev vs (12) Holger Rune

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Date: March 14, 2025

Round: Semifinals

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Tennis Channel+

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Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune preview

Daniil Medvedev looking to reach 3rd consecutive final in Indian Wells | Image Source: Getty

Two-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev will face the in-form 12th seed Holger Rune in the semifinals of the 2025 Indian Wells Masters on Friday, March 14.

Medvedev was in dire need of a good showing before arriving in the Californian desert. Having compiled a measly 8-5 win/loss record on the ATP Tour in the first two months of the year, the Russian had been losing to opponents ranked well below him in uncharacteristic fashion.

The World No. 6 has turned his season around at this year's BNP Paribas Open, to say the least. The 29-year-old received a first-round bye, following which he dispatched Yunchaokete Bu, Alex Michelsen (via retirement) and Tommy Paul with relative ease to reach the quarterfinals. He was then taken to the distance by 20th-seeded Arthur Fils, needing two hours and 26 minutes to win 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(7) to reach the semifinals of the Masters-level event.

Rune, meanwhile, has had a similar storyline at the Palm Springs event. The Dane had lost six of his 12 matches before the Indian Wells Masters but turned his fortunes around by beating quality opposition in Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tallon Griekspoor, and Ugo Humbert en route to reaching his third ATP Masters 1000 semifinals in his last four events at the level.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune head-to-head

Medvedev leads Rune 2-1 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. While they split their first two matches in 2023, the Russian defeated the Dane in the quarterfinals in Indian Wells last year in straight sets.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Daniil Medvedev
Holger Rune

(Odds will be added once available)

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Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune prediction

Holger Rune came from a set down to beat Tallon Grieksoor in Indian Wells QFs | Image Source: Getty

Medvedev has struggled to hit winners past his opponents due to the recent ball change on the ATP Tour. While the former World No. 1 hit more unforced errors than winners in his last win against Fils, he showed impressive mental strength to come from a break down in the deciding set against the Frenchman and nab the victory.

Rune is nowhere close to his older opponent on outdoor hardcourts. For what it's worth, though, the 21-year-old has played just as well as the fifth seed in Indian Wells. The former World No. 4 has been hitting his groundstrokes with conviction, with his forehand being his biggest weapon this fortnight.

The Dane also has the rare ability to switch directions on his forehand at a whim and likes hitting swashbuckling shots down the line. Medvedev, in that aspect, will have to be on his A-game from that wing to stay in cross-court rallies with the 12th seed. Keeping in mind the Russian's experience of reaching back-to-back Indian Wells finals in the last two years, he is the slight favorite in this entertaining match-up.

Pick: Medvedev to win in three sets.