Indian Wells 2025 Draw: Novak Djokovic's projected path to the final ft. potential R2 with Nick Kyrgios, and QF with Carlos Alcaraz

Novak Djokovic learned of his fate as the draw for the BNP Paribas Open 2025 at Indian Wells was revealed on Monday, March 3. He's on the hunt for his milestone 100th career title, as well as his record sixth title at the venue, which would break his tie with Roger Federer.

This season has been quite up and down for Djokovic. He started the year with a loss to Reilly Opelka in the quarterfinals of the Brisbane International. He rebounded with a semifinal showing at the Australian Open. However, an injury forced him to throw in the towel after losing the first set against Alexander Zverev.

Djokovic took some time to recover and returned to action at the Qatar Open, where he was shown the door by Matteo Berrettini in the first round. He will now aim to get back on track with a deep run. As one of the seeded players here, he has received a bye into the second round. Here's a look at how his draw could pan out after that:

R2 opponent - Nick Kyrgios or qualifier

Djokovic will begin his quest for a sixth title at Indian Wells against either familiar foe Kyrgios or a yet to be placed qualifier. The Aussie leads their head-to-head 2-1, and won both of their matches in 2017, including one at the BNP Paribas Open.

The Serb won their biggest match when he beat his younger rival in the Wimbledon 2022 final. Kyrgios is currently on the comeback trail following an injury, and lost both of his singles matches this year. He's unlikely to extend his winning record in this rivalry if he makes it past the first hurdle.

Possible R3 opponent - Francisco Cerundolo or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Mexican Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

25th seed Cerundolo should be Djokovic's third-round opponent based on the seedings. However, it's the in-form Davidovich Fokina who will be favored to make it that far. The Spaniard finished as the runner-up at the Delray Beach Open and the Mexican Open in recent weeks, and could continue his hot streak here as well.

Djokovic leads the Spaniard 5-1 in the head-to-head, and remains unbeaten against him on hardcourts. Davidovich Fokina could prove to be a tough test but the Serb will be favored to win based on his prior record. He also won his only match against Cerundolo at last year's French Open in five sets.

Possible R4 opponent - Alex de Minaur or Hubert Hurkacz

De Minaur with a 13-4 record for the season could offer Djokovic a tough time in the fourth round. The latter leads their head-to-head 2-1. Two of their three matches took place last year, with each player winning once.

De Minaur came out on top at the United Cup, and Djokovic had the last laugh at the Monte-Carlo Masters. Hurkacz hasn't played in recent weeks due to an injury, and has a 6-6 record for the season. He has also lost all seven of his matches against the Serb, so if he makes it this far, he's unlikely to pose a serious threat to the former World No. 1.

Possible QF opponent - Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz at the ABN AMRO Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Djokovic could lock horns with two-time defending champion Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. The latter is bidding to become the first player since the Serb to win three consecutive titles at the venue.

Djokovic leads his younger adversary 5-3 in the head-to-head. He has never lost to him on hardcourts, and won their most recent encounter at this year's Australian Open in four sets. Alcaraz is a different beast at Indian Wells and he loves the conditions here, so this could be his best chance to one-up the 24-time Major champion on hardcourts.

Possible SF opponent - Taylor Fritz or Andrey Rublev

Djokovic could encounter some of the season's most in-form players in the semifinals. Rublev recently won the Qatar Open, and could be a possible opponent for the Serb in the semis. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the only player to win two titles this year. He also reached the final in Dubai a few days ago, making him another dangerous opponent at this stage.

Ben Shelton could also be another possible adversary for the Serb at this stage, along with Jack Draper. Fritz is the highest seeded player that Djokovic could encounter in the semifinals. However, the latter pulled out of last week's Mexican Open due to an injury, and hasn't won back-to-back matches since the Australian Open.

Djokovic is also 10-0 against Fritz, and has a winning record against other players mentioned here, except for Auger-Aliassime, as their rivalry is tied at 1-1. The 37-year-old will fancy his chances here regardless of who's on the other side of the net.

Possible Final opponent - Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, or Stefanos Tsitsipas

Alexander Zverev at the Argentina Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Tsitsipas emerged victorious at last week's Dubai Tennis Championships, his first title of the year as well as his first at the ATP 500 level. However, he has won only two of his 14 matches against Djokovic, and has lost their past 11 meetings. He will be the underdog if they lock horns in the final.

Medvedev has been quite lacklustre this year, and hasn't advanced to a final so far. He has been the runner-up at Indian Wells for the past two years. Even though Djokovic enjoys a 10-5 advantage in their rivalry, Medvedev has beaten him in some high-profile matches in the past. If the Russian channels his best once again, then he has the potential to outplay his older rival.

Zverev started the season with a runner-up finish at the Australian Open, and has underperformed after that. His next three losses have been against 28th ranked Cerundolo, No. 86 Francisco Comesana, and No. 83 Learner Tien. Additionally, he has never progressed beyond the quarterfinals at Indian Wells.

If Zverev manages to overcome his recent struggles and his poor record here, then he could give Djokovic a run for his money. The Serb boasts of a 8-5 record in this match-up. However, the German has a 2-0 record against him in championship rounds, so it could be a close call if they meet in the final here.