Indian Wells 2025: Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki preview, head-to-head, prediction and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki

Date: March 9, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Hard Court

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki preview

Tiafoe in action at the BNP Paribas Open - Source: Getty

Sixteenth seed Frances Tiafoe will take on Yosuke Watanuki in the third round of the men's singles at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open on Sunday.

Tiafoe has made a modest start to the season so far by garnering five wins from nine matches, including a second-round appearance in the Australian Open. After cruising past Arthur Rinderknech in the first round, he was eliminated by Fabian Marozsan in the second 6-7(3), 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

The American entered Indian Wells on the back of a second-round exit in Acapulco. Tiafoe started his campaign with a hard-fought win over Damir Dzumhur, 7-6(4), 7-6(7) and is making his ninth appearance in Indian Wells this year.

Watanuki reacts after a point in the 2024 Shanghai Rolex Masters - Source: Getty

Yosuke Watanuki, meanwhile, played most of his tennis on the ATP Challenger circuit last year. He reached the third round of the Shanghai Masters, which was his best result on the main tour.

The Japanese entered the main draw in Indian Wells via the qualifiers. He continued his winning streak by beating Alexander Bublik in the first round and then moved past Tomas Machac in the second. Watanuki secured his place in the third round after Machac was forced to retire in the second set (4-6, 4-2) due to injury.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki head-to-head

Tiafoe leads the head-to-head against Watanuki 1-0. He defeated the Japanese in the 2023 Miami Open round of 16 match.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki odds

Player Name	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Frances Tiafoe
Yosuke Watanuki

Odds will be updated when available.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki prediction

Tiafoe reacts after a point in the BNP Paribas Open - Source: Getty

Frances Tiafoe is a former semifinalist in Indian Wells and will be hoping to make a deep run this year. The American has been in and around the top 20 for the past few years but is yet to break into the top five of the ATP Rankings. He held his nerve brilliantly to get past two close tiebreakers in the last round and will look to raise his level even further in the next match.

Watanuki, meanwhile, is yet to find his feet on the main tour. Apart from a third-round finish in Shanghai, he also reached the main draw in Wimbledon via the qualifiers. The Japanese is unbeaten in his last four matches and will be high on confidence entering the third round.

Watanuki has made the most of his opportunity in Indian Wells. He has a resilient all-around game and great anticipation skills on the court. If the Japanese can deal with the home crowd and begin on the front foot, he could have a say in this bout. However, it is most likely that Tiafoe maximizes his potent all-around game and secures his ticket to the last 16.

Pick: Tiafoe to win in three sets.