Indian Wells 2025: Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (12) Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet

Date: March 8, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN

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Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet preview

Rune in action at the 2025 ABN AMRO Open (Source: Getty)

Twelfth-seed Holger Rune will lock horns with Corentin Moutet in the second round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open on Saturday (March 8). The winner will face either Kei Nishikori or Ugo Humbert in the next round.

Rune has had a disappointing start to the new season with early tournament exits and withdrawals due to illness. The Dane has a win percentage of just 50% in 2025. He has yet to reach atleast the quarterfinals of any tournament.

Rune's best performance came at the Australian Open, where he registered hard-fought wins against Zhang Zhizhen, Matteo Berrettini and Miomir Kecmanovic to reach the fourth round. He then succumbed to a 3-6, 6-3, 3-6, 2-6 loss to eventual champion Jannik Sinner.

Moutet's results this season have also been underwhelming. The Frenchman suffered first-round exits in two of the four tournaments played so far. Similar to Rune, the 25-year-old's best outing was at the Melbourne Major, where he reached the third round.

At the Indian Wells, Moutet faced Jordan Thompson in the opener. He broke the Australian twice to win the first set after 10 games. Thompson's aggressive gameplay helped him claim the second set. However, Moutet got back into the game with his excellent court coverage and powerful forehand, winning the match 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.

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Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet head-to-head

This will be their second meeting on the tour. Moutet leads the head-to-head 1-0 as he won their only encounter at the 2022 Adelaide International, 7-5, 6-3.

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Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Holger Rune	-275	+1.5 (-700)	Over 21.5 (-135)
Corentin Moutet	+210	-1.5 (+375)	Under 21.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Holger Rune vs Corentin Moutet prediction

Moutet at the 2025 Australian Open (Source: Getty)

Rune's form and match fitness in recent times have been concerning. The Dane has yet to register a noteworthy performance this year. He retired mid-match during his most recent campaign in Acapulco citing food poison.

While Moutet has struggled to pull off results this year, he is in full fitness. The Frenchman was quick with his movements and generated great power on his serves in the opener.

Although Rune is the better-ranked player, Moutet is expected to pass this test in the current situation. The Frenchman knows the court conditions better having played the first round. He also has the better head-to-head record against the Dane.

Pick: Moutet to win in three sets.