Indian Wells 2025: Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic preview, head-to-head, prediction and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic

Date: March 13, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells 2025)

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hardcourt (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, DAZN

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Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic preview

Madison Keys of the United States in action against Donna Vekic of Croatia in the women's singles fourth round on Day 8 of the BNP Paribas Open - Source: Getty

Fifth seed Madison Keys will face Belinda Bencic in the women's singles quarterfinals of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Thursday, 13 March.

This year's Australian Open champion, Keys has a winning streak of 15 matches as she won the Adelaide International and the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne. She has a 17-1 win-loss record as her only loss of the year was in Auckland against Clara Tauson.

30-year-old Keys was stretched to three sets in her previous two matches, as she won 6-2, 6-7(8), 6-4 against the 28th seed Elise Mertens after a 2-hour 52-minute battle in the third round.

In her fourth round, Keys lost the first set 4-6 against the 19th seed Donna Vekic and was 5-3 down in the second set tie-break but somehow managed to win the tie-break 9-7. She won the third set 6-3, but has spent more than five hours on the court to win the previous two matches.

Meanwhile, 28-year-old Bencic is having a great year after becoming a mother in April 2024. The Swiss player has a 17-4 win-loss record in 2025 and she has won 13 out of her last 15 matches. Both of those losses were against Top 10 players: Coco Gauff at the Australian Open and Emma Navarro at the Dubai Open in three sets.

Bencic knocked out the third seed Gauff 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round. She has also earned wins against the 17th seed Amanda Anisimova and 13th seed Diana Shnaider on her way to the quarterfinals.

Belinda Bencic of Switzerland celebrates while playing Coco Gauff during the BNP Paribas Open - Source: Getty

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Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic head-to-head

Keys and Bencic have played each other four times and they are level at 2-2. Keys won in straight sets at the 2015 French Open and 2021 Qatar Open whereas Bencic won in straight sets at the 2015 Eastbourne Open and 2022 Charleston Open.

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Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total games
Madison Keys	-135	-1.5 (+160)	Over 21.5 (-120)
Belinda Bencic	+105	+1.5 (-235)	Under 21.5 (-118)

All odds sourced from BetMGM.

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Madison Keys vs Belinda Bencic prediction

Madison Keys has a 13-11 win-loss record in Indian Wells and she has never reached the semifinals at the BNP Paribas Open. The American reached the quarterfinals at the event in 2022, when she was outclassed by Iga Swiatek 1-6, 0-6.

Keys is few wins away from completing a century of the wins at WTA 1000 events, as her win-loss record is 96-76 at the moment. She has won only one WTA 1000 title in her career, which was in 2019 at the Cincinnati Open.

Keys would be fatigued after two tiring matches in the previous two rounds, so it won't be easy for her to win against the in-form Swiss.

Belinda Bencic has a 13-8 win-loss record in Indian Wells and has also reached the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open for the second time. Her best result at the event came in 2019, when she reached the semifinals.

Bencic is back in the Top 50 in the Live WTA Rankings, and she could be in Top 40 if she beats Keys in the quarterfinals, which means she won't need wildcards to compete in WTA 1000 or WTA 500 events anymore.

Bencic's baseline game has been great this week and she could make things difficult for Keys if she performs the same way in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Belinda Bencic to win in three sets