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Match Details
Fixture: (5) Madison Keys vs (19) Donna Vekic
Date: March 12, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic preview
Fifth seed Madison Keys will take on 19th seed Donna Vekic in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Whoever out of the two wins, will face either third seed Coco Gauff or Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals of the WTA 1000 event.
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Keys has had a dream of a start to the 2025 season, winning her maiden Grand Slam at the Australian Open while also clinching the Adelaide International. The American took a short break from tennis after her Melbourne Major triumph and returned to action in Indian Wells.
Here, Keys received a bye to the second round by virtue of her seeding and here, she thrashed Anastasia Potapova 6-3, 6-0 to set up a third-round clash with 28th seed Elise Mertens. The World No. 5 started the match well and won the opening set 6-2 before the Belgian took the second via a tiebreak and forced the match into a decider. Keys eventually won the final set to reach the quarterfinals in Indian Wells.
Donna Vekic had a poor start to the 2025 season as barring a fourth-round appearance at the Australian Open, she did not win a single match before the ongoing WTA 1000 event. The Croat started her campaign against Elina Avanesyan in the second round and won 6-3, 6-3 to book her place in the third round.
Here, she faced tenth seed Emma Navarro and the match's first set had quite a few service breaks, eventually going to a tiebreak. The Croat eventually edged out the American in the tiebreak to take the lead in the fixture.
Vekic dominated the second set and won it 6-1 to book her place in the fourth round in Indian Wells for the very first time in her career.
Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic head-to-head
Keys currently leads 2-1 in the head-to-head against Vekic, with the two's last encounter coming in the first round of the 2019 Canadian Open. The Croat went on to win a thrilling fixture 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(5).
Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic odds
All odds sourced from BETMGM.
Madison Keys vs Donna Vekic prediction
Keys will enter the match as the heavy favorite to win given her dominant start to 2025. That said, Vekic is yet to drop a set in Indian Wells and will not be easy to beat given her last two wins.
The 28-year-old has won 77.1% of points (74 out of 96) on her first serve so far at the WTA 1000 event, serving five aces. However, one major issue for the American has been her double-fault count of 16, 12 of which came in her win over Mertens, where she won just 17 out of 52 points on her second serve.
Keys loves to play aggressively and is among the most powerful hitters on the WTA Tour. The 30-year-old's power can also be a point of concern at times, as she can overhit her shots, something she cannot do too much against Vekic.
The Croat's first-serve numbers so far in Indian Wells have not been particularly impressive, winning just 44 out of 69 points (63.8%), and producing just two aces while serving ten double faults. Vekic's return numbers have been rather good (as returns go), having won 67 out of 108 points (62%). The Croat also has an aggressive approach to her game but a bit of defensive solidity could come in very handy for her.
With both players liking to go for the jugular from the start, it could come down to who makes fewer mistakes on the court. Keys' second serve has been a bit of an issue and coupled with Vekic's return numbers, the Croat could have a slight edge. That said, given the American's current form, there is a fair chance of her grinding out a win.
Pick: Keys to win in three sets.
