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Match Details
Fixture: (5) Madison Keys vs (28) Elise Mertens
Date: March 10, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Tennis Channel+
Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens preview
Reigning Australian Open champion and fifth seed Madison Keys will face 28th-seeded Elise Mertens in the third round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open on Monday (March 10).
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Keys has been by far the most in-form player on the WTA tour this year if her 15-1 win/loss record thus far is anything to go by. The American dominated the first month of the 2025 calendar by picking up titles in Adelaide and Melbourne, following which she took a well-deserved break in February.
Having received a first-round bye at this year's BNP Paribas Open, the 30-year-old defeated Russia's Anastasia Potapova with a commanding scoreline of 6-3, 6-0. The World No. 5 will be eager to improve her career-best result of reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells (2022) next week.
Mertens, meanwhile, has also enjoyed a good start to her 2025 season. The World No. 28 finished runner-up at the Hobart International in January before securing her ninth career singles title at the Singapore Open a month later.
The 29-year-old also received a first-round bye in Indian Wells. She gave a good account of herself in her tournament opener against Australia's Kimberly Birrell, beating her 6-4, 7-5 in one hour and 40 minutes to book her berth in the third round.
Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens head-to-head
Keys leads Mertens by a margin of 3-2 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA tour. While the American won their first three encounters at the 2017 US Open, the 2019 Australian Open and 2021 Wimbledon, the Belgian got her revenge at the 2023 Cincinnati Open and the 2024 US Open.
Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens odds
All bets sourced from BetMGM.
Madison Keys vs Elise Mertens prediction
Keys showed her supreme shotmaking ability during her triumph in Melbourne, where her forehand and backhand were both firing on all cylinders. The World No. 5 has also mastered the art of clutch-serving, using her big flat forehand in her "serve + 1" tactic to hit past her helpless opponents.
Mertens doesn't nearly have as much power on her groundstrokes as her American opponent. The Belgian does have impressive variety, though. She can hit both slice and top spin with equal adeptness, which is only supplemented by her ability to approach the net and end rallies early.
That said, the 28th seed's shots will have trouble penetrating the relatively slow courts in Indian Wells. Keys, on the other hand, is also a fast-court player but her game is much more conducive to such conditions. In that context, the 2025 Australian Open champion is the favorite to take this match.
Pick: Keys to win in straight sets.
