Indian Wells 2025 Semifinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (5) Madison Keys

Date: March 14, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open (Indian Wells 2025)

Round: Semifinals

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hardcourt (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN, DAZN

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys preview

Aryna Sabalenka reacts to defeating Liudmila Samsonova in the quarter-final on Day 9 of the BNP Paribas Open. - Source: Getty

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on the fifth seed Madison Keys in a rematch of this year's Australian Open final, in the semifinal of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Friday, 14 March.

Aryna Sabalenka has reached the semifinals of the event without dropping a set. But her quarterfinal opponent, World No. 25 Liudmila Samsonova is the highest ranked player she has faced at the tournament so far.

Sabalenka started the season by winning her first 11 matches but Keys ended her winning streak in the Australian Open final. She lost three out of four matches, including upset losses against Ekaterina Alexandrova at the Qatar Open and Clara Tauson at the Dubai Open.

On the other hand, Madison Keys has a winning streak of 16 matches, which started in Adelaide. Keys won her third and fourth round matches against 28th seed Elise Mertens and 19th seed Donna Vekic respectively, in three sets. But she played her best match against Tokyo 2020 Olympic Gold Medallist Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals.

Bencic reached the quarterfinals after knocking out the third seed Coco Gauff in the fourth round, but Keys outplayed her 6-1, 6-1 in just over an hour. Keys has an 18-1 win-loss record in 2025.

Australian Open champion Madison Keys and runner-up Aryna Sabalenka posing with their trophies. - Source: Getty

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka leads Madison Keys 4-2 in their head-to-head record. Madison Keys won their last meeting in the Australian Open final, but Sabalenka still leads 3-1 in their meetings on hard court.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total games
Aryna Sabalenka	-225	TBD	TBD
Madison Keys	+175	TBD	TBD

All odds sourced from BetMGM.

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys prediction

Aryna Sabalenka is going to be the favorite in this match, but a tough battle is expected as both of them are in great form. Sabalenka has a 14-5 win-loss record in Indian Wells. She reached the final of the BNP Paribas Open in 2023 and lost to Elena Rybakina.

But this time Sabalenka would be hungry for success, especially after two losses in Qatar and Dubai. The World No. 1 would want to take revenge and increase her lead against Iga Swiatek in the WTA Rankings before the clay season begins. She has spent less time on court so she would be fresher.

Madison Keys has reached the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open for the first time, in her 12th main draw appearance at the event. She has a 14-11 win-loss record in Indian Wells.

Keys would need a better start like the Australian Open, where she led 5-1 in the first set, which laid the foundation for her win. If Keys wins the 2025 BNP Paribas Open, she will reach her new career high ranking, No. 4.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets