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Match Details
Fixture: (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs (12) Holger Rune
Date: March 11, 2025
Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,693,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Holger Rune preview
Eighth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will take on 12th seed Holger Rune in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open on March 11. Whoever wins, will face either Tallon Griekspoor or Yosuke Watanuki in the quarterfinals of the Masters 1000 event.
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Tsitsipas has won ten out of 14 matches so far this season, most notably winning the Dubai Tennis Championships. He also reached the quarterfinals of the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam.
The Greek entered the BNP Paribas Open after his triumph in Dubai and received a walkover to the second round, where he beat Thiago Seyboth Wild 6-2, 6-4. Tsitsipas was up against 28th seed Matteo Berrettini in the third round and took the first set 6-3. He then broke twice in the last three games of the second set to register a 6-3, 6-3 win and book his place in the fourth round in Indian Wells.
Holger Rune has won eight out of 14 matches so far in the 2025 season, with his best performance so far being reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open. The Dane entered Indian Wells after a second-round exit at the Mexican Open in Acapulco.
After getting a walkover in the first round, Rune registered a comprehensive 6-2, 6-4 win over Corentin Moutet to set up a third-round match against another Frenchman in 18th seed Ugo Humbert. The first set was tightly-contested, with both players saving a few break points. However, it was Humbert who won the set after breaking in the very last game.
Rune raced to a 3-0 lead in the second set and eventually won it 6-4 to force the match into a decider. The final set was another intense affair like the first, and this time it was the Dane who won it 7-5 to book his place in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open for the second straight year.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Holger Rune head-to-head
Rune has won each of the prior three encounter between the two, the most recent of which came at the 2023 ATP Finals. Here, the Dane led 2-1 before Tsitsipas retired due to injury.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Holger Rune odds
All odds sourced from oddschecker.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Holger Rune prediction
Based on current form, Tsitsipas has the edge entering the match but Rune won all of their previous encounters, so he cannot be written off.
The Greek has had an impressive output on his first serve so far in Indian Wells, having won 50 out of 60 points (83.33%) with four aces to his name. He has also produced 36 winners compared to 26 unforced errors. Tsitsipas will look to be aggressive from the start of the match and put pressure on Rune. However, given the Dane's solid defense, he has to be careful not to produce too many unforced errors.
Rune has won 66 out of 90 points (73.33%) on his first serve so far during the Masters 1000 event, serving eight aces. However, he has also produce ten double faults and cannot afford too many of those against an in-form Tsitsipas. Another cause of concern for the Dane has been his high unforced-error count of 59.
Rune has a solid defense and his stamina will come in handy while dealing with the Greek's intensity. The 21-year-old is also a powerful hitter and his fairly balanced game can give his opponent a run for his money.
While Rune has won all of his prior matches against Tsitsipas, the latter's current form could see a change of fortunes for him and should see him reach the quarterfinals in Indian Wells for the first time since 2021.
Pick: Tsitsipas to win in straight sets.
