Indian Wells 2025: Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev

Date: March 12, 2025

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open 2025

Round: Round of 16

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,693,540

Live Telecast: US - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev preview

BNP Paribas Open - Day 5 - Source: Getty

Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev will meet in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Masters 1000 event.

Russian Medvedev, the ATP's sixth-ranked player, came through the last round after opponent Alex Michelsen was forced to retire at 0-2. Consequently, he's had very little court time at Indian Wells this year, having defeated BuYunchaokete 6-2, 6-2 in the second round.

Medvedev made it to the semifinals at the Open 13 Provence event in Marseilles, and then to two quarterfinals in succession in Doha and Dubai. He lost to Tallon Griekspoor in Dubai in an epic encounter, 6-2, 6-7(7), 5-7. The 29-year-old has complained that he has found the Indian Wells court a little slow.

World No. 11 Tommy Paul has breezed through to the fourth round with straightforward wins over Tristan Boyer, 6-3, 6-1 and Cameron Norrie, 6-3, 7-5. The tenth seed had a good start to the year, reaching the Melbourne quarterfinal, where he was beaten by eventual finalist, Alexander Zverev. He also appeared in the Dallas Open semifinal, losing to Denis Shapovalov.

Last time out, American Paul fell victim to a stomach bug that forced several seeds to retire in Mexico. He's a big fan of this tournament, having beaten Zverev and Andrey Rublev at Indian Wells in previous years.

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev head-to-head

Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev have played four times on the ATP tour, with Medvedev leading the head-to-head 3-1. However, the last time they played was at the Internazional BNL d'Italia in Rome, where Paul won in straight sets on the clay 6-1, 6-4. Most importantly, they played in the semifinal at Indian Wells last year, with Medvedev winning 1-6, 7-6(3), 6-2.

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	+106	+1.5 (-122)	Over 12.5 (+100)
Daniil Medvedev	-130	-1.5 (-105)	Over 12.5 (-112)

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev prediction

BNP Paribas Open - Day 3 - Source: Getty

Tommy Paul has reached the semifinals of Masters 1000 events three times but has never reached a final. The 27-year-old has looked particularly impressive this year and has the confidence of knowing that he made it to the last four a year ago. He's made short work of his two opponents to reach this stage.

Medvedev's form is more difficult to assess. He's had a mixed start to the year and will be looking to the Sunshine Swing to get his season back on track. The seedings suggest that Medvedev will prevail over Paul, but last year's semifinal was a three-setter that hinged on a 2nd set tie-breaker that could have gone either way. Paul can cause a minor upset if the Russian falls below his best.

Pick: Tommy Paul to win in three sets.