Indian Wells Masters 2023: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match details

Fixture: (5) Daniil Medvedev vs (14) Frances Tiafoe.

Date: March 18, 2023.

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open.

Round: Semifinal.

Venue: Indian Wells, California, USA.

Category: ATP Masters 1000.

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt.

Prize money: $8,800,000.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe preview

Daniil Medvedev at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Former US Open champion Daniil Medvedev will lock horns with World No. 16 Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.

Medvedev scored wins over Brandon Nakashima, Ilya Ivashka and Alexander Zverev to book his spot in the quarterfinals. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina stood between him and a spot in the semifinals.

The Russian started the match against Davidovich Fokina on a strong note as he nabbed an early break to go 3-0 up. He held on to the lead until the end of the set to clinch it. Both players had a few break point chances in the second set, but were unable to secure an advantage for themselves.

It looked like the set was headed into a tie-break, but Medvedev snagged the decisive break in the 11th game of the set. He then served out the match in the following game to win 6-3, 7-5.

Tiafoe, meanwhile, defeated Marcos Giron, Jason Kubler and Alejandro Tabilo to make the last eight. He took on former Indian Wells champion Cameron Norrie in the quarterfinals.

Both players were evenly matched at the start of the first set, but Tiafoe eventually gained the upper hand. He broke the Brit's serve in the seventh game to go 4-3 up and soon served out the set after that.

The duo traded service breaks at the start of the second set. After a hold of serve from Norrie to make it 2-1, Tiafoe bagged the next four straight games to lead 5-2. However, the American failed to close out the proceedings at that point and let his opponent back into the game.

Tiafoe did recover in time, however, to put an end to Norrie's comeback bid and won the match 6-4, 6-4. He has now reached the semifinals of a Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe head-to-head

Medvedev leads Tiafoe 4-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the 2021 Miami Open in straight sets.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Daniil Medvedev	-350	+1.5 (-1000)	Over 21.5 (-120)
Frances Tiafoe	+270	-1.5 (+500)	Under 21.5 (-115)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe prediction

Frances Tiafoe at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Tiafoe struck 22 winners while committing just nine unforced errors to oust Norrie in the previous round. He did stumble while trying to close out the match, but he didn't let the situation spiral out of control.

Medvedev, meanwhile, remained largely in control of the proceedings against Davidovich Fokina in the previous round as well. He didn't drop his serve throughout the match as he upped his unbeaten run to 18 wins.

Medvedev has dominated Tiafoe in their previous meetings thus far. Their last encounter took place a couple of years ago at the Miami Open. Back then, the American's serve let him down and he was unable to make a dent during the return games as well.

Medvedev has been pushed to three sets twice and despite complaining about the conditions here, has managed to keep winning. He has been able to counter Tiafoe's game quite well so far, but things could be different this time around.

The American has played quite well all week and if he's able to maintain this level, an upset could be on the cards. While it's tough to bet against Medvedev, who hasn't lost a match in quite some time, it wouldn't be surprising to see Tiafoe snap his winning streak.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets.