Is Coco Gauff's American No. 1 spot under threat from Madison Keys in 2025?

World No. 3 Coco Gauff was one of the favorites to win the Australian Open this year. She entered the event on the back of title-winning runs at the China Open and WTA Finals while playing a crucial role in team USA winning the 2025 United Cup.

The American got off to a solid start in Melbourne by cruising past Sofia Kenin and Jodie Anna Burrage in the first two rounds and then showed her class against Leylah Fernandez and Belinda Bencic en route to the quarterfinals. Despite a spirited effort against Paula Badosa, the in-form Spaniard outfoxed her in straight sets, 7-5, 6-4.

Five American players were ranked among the top 20 seeds in the women's singles draw of the 2025 Australian Open. While Coco Gauff bowed out in the last eight, Jessica Pegula and Danielle Collins were both shown the exit door in the third round. World No. 9 Emma Navarro amassed yet another quarterfinal result at a Major but eventually lost to Iga Swiatek in straight sets.

While the critics were distracted by the usual heavyweights on the tour, Madison Keys achieved her career-best result at the Australian Open this year. Against all odds, she stunned the defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in three-sets in the final and lifted the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup in Melbourne. This not only silenced her doubters over the past few years but also shook up the women’s tennis scene for the year ahead.

One would have expected the likes of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, and Elena Rybakina to flourish in 2025, but Madison Keys and Paula Badosa look eager to make their mark this year.

Keys made her professional debut in 2009 and won her first WTA title in 2014. She has been among the most consistent players in the last decade or so but struggled to make an impact at the highest level. Not only did the American secure a runner-up finish at the 2017 US Open, but she also reached the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2015 and 2022 and the French Open in 2018. Her recent triumph in Melbourne marks a crucial milestone in her career, one that had been missing in the past few years.

While this fascinating start to the season might have left many on the edge of their seats, the question arises whether Keys can continue her purple patch and take over Coco Gauff's position as the number one ranked American player in the world.

When Keys lifted her first WTA title, Gauff was only 10-year-old. While the latter has been one of the fastest learners in women's tennis, Keys has a wealth of experience in her locker, now hitting her peak at the age of 29. For years, critics grew weary of predicting her to win a Major, and those expectations seemed to keep her out of the spotlight. However, now that the American has finally gotten the monkey off her back, she could use the confidence to be more clinical this year.

Keys outclassed four of the top 10 seeds en route to the title in Melbourne. Apart from a breathtaking performance against Aryna Sabalenka, she also showed her mettle against A-grade players such as Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, and Danielle Collins. Keys was ranked outside the top 20 last month but is currently among the top seven players on tour this year.

She's made a near-perfect start to the season with 14 wins from 15 matches, including title-winning runs in the Adelaide International and the Australian Open.

Even though there is no doubting the American's ability against the best players at the moment, fitness levels and scheduling could stand in her way to claiming the top spot from Coco Gauff. While the 20-year-old is known for her solid performances throughout the year, Keys succumbed to multiple injuries last year. A shoulder problem ruled her out for the 2024 Australian Open, and a hamstring issue forced her to retire in the fourth round of the Wimbledon Championships.

Having said that, there isn't much that separates the two when it comes to their performances on clay and grass. Both players are among the cleanest hitters on tour, and with the correct strategy in play, they could humble any opponent at the highest level. The momentum will be with Keys after a scintillating start to the season, and she will be eager to hunt down the top spots in the women's ranking. On the contrary, Coco Gauff, who holds an 1800-point lead over her fellow compatriot, will be keen to raise her level even further and add to her impressive young career on tour.

Coco Gauff and Madison Keys have faced each other five times on the main tour

Madison Keys and Coco Gauff in the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Seven - Source: Getty

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head against Coco Gauff 3-2. She defeated the youngster most recently in the 2024 Madrid Open in Spain.

Keys has had the final say on clay and grass so far, but Gauff has outfoxed the American twice on hardcourts. She stunned Keys first in the 2022 US Open and then outfoxed her again in the 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships.

With the Middle East swing on the horizon, plenty of points will be up for grabs for both players on tour. While none of them have confirmed their next appearance on tour, they are most likely to feature in the Abu Dhabi Open next week.

Coco Gauff has produced some scintillating tennis over the past few months and there is no doubt that if she continues to play this way, she has a shot at World No. 1. That said, Madison Keys will have a newfound confidence and her morale will be significantly boosted after her triumph at the Australian Open.

Combine this with her clean hitting and spectacular run of form, and she has a good chance of dethroning Gauff as the top-ranked American women's player.