Italian Open 2021: Angelique Kerber vs Jelena Ostapenko preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: Angelique Kerber vs Jelena Ostapenko

Date: 13 May 2021

Tournament: Internazionali BNL d'italia 2021

Round: Third round (Round of 16)

Venue: Rome, Italy

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Red clay

Prize money: $1,835,490

Match timing: Approx. 4 pm local time, 2 pm GMT, 10 am EST

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Angelique Kerber vs Jelena Ostapenko preview

On Tuesday, Jelena Ostapenko won her first match in Rome since 2018. She followed that up with another win the next day, and will now face former World No. 1 Angelique Kerber on Thursday for a place in the Italian Open quarterfinals.

Ostapenko, who has been struggling to find her form for quite some time now, has managed to win consecutive matches for the first time this clay swing. She breezed past Johanna Konta in the first round before getting the better of qualifier Ajla Tomljanovic in the second.

The Latvian has failed to build on such wins in the first few months of this season though. She lost to Elina Svitolina in the third round of the Gippsland Trophy, and was defeated by Karolina Muchova in the opening round of the Australian Open.

Ostapenko then failed to cross the second round hurdle in three consecutive tournaments (Doha, Dubai and St Petersburg). At Miami, she battled past Wang Xiyu and Kirsten Flipkens in the first couple of rounds before losing to the eventual champion, Ashleigh Barty, in straight sets.

The 2017 French Open champion then played at Stuttgart, where she lost a thrilling second-round encounter to Karilona Pliskova after winning the first set. In Madrid last week, the 23-year-old was once again handed a defeat in the second round; she managed to win just three games against Jennifer Brady.

Angelique Kerber, meanwhile, hasn't fared much better in 2021. The German has struggled since the very start of the season; after reaching the quarterfinals of the Grampians Trophy, she failed to notch up two consecutive wins for the next three months.

Jelena Ostapenko

Kerber, in fact, has won only 50% of her matches this season. She lost in the opening round of the Australian Open, and followed that up with a second-round exit in Doha.

She then suffered a shock defeat in Dubai against Caroline Garcia, who came back from a set down to knock out the German in the first round. Kerber next participated in the Miami Open, where she lost to Victoria Azarenka in the second round.

The 33-year-old started her clay swing in Stuttgart, but lost her second match to fourth seed Elina Svitolina. That was followed by another second-round defeat in Madrid, this time to Petra Kvitova.

Kerber, who will be relieved to have reached the third round here in Rome, will be looking to reach her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal since Indian Wells 2019.

Angelique Kerber vs Jelena Ostapenko head-to-head

Angelique Kerber leads the head-to-head against Jelena Ostapenko by a margin of 1-0. Their only meeting took place in the semifinals of the 2018 Wimbledon Championships, where the German won in straight sets.

Angelique Kerber vs Jelena Ostapenko prediction

Angelique Kerber will continue to play aggressively from the baseline.

While both players have been struggling to find their form, Angelique Kerber will enter the contest as the slight favorite given her ranking and experience. That said, Jelena Ostapenko has shown signs of a resurgence lately, and will go out all guns blazing when she takes the court against the German.

Kerber's serving woes have continued to haunt her this year, and she will have to be extra cautious on that shot against an aggressive returner like Ostapenko. She will also have to play with controlled aggression from the baseline and constantly put her opponent on the move, as the Latvian is dangerous when given time to strike her shots.

Known for her powerful yet high-risk groundstrokes, Ostapenko's biggest focus will be on controlling her unforced errors. The 23-year-old also has one of the weakest serves on tour, so she will have to do her best to not give Kerber too many looks at her second serve.

Ostapenko can generate her own power on clay effortlessly, but over the last few years she hasn't shown the kind of consistency that can win her more than a couple of matches in a row. And Kerber, with all her experience, will likely take full advantage of that.

Prediction: Angelique Kerber to win in two sets.