Italian Open 2021: Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens*

Date: 11 May 2021

Tournament: Internazionali BNL d'italia 2021

Round: First round (Round of 64)

Venue: Rome, Italy

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Red clay

Prize money: €1,577,613

Match timing: 10 am local time, 1.30 pm IST

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

(*Note: Madison Keys was initially supposed to play Karolina Muchova, but the latter withdrew from the Italian Open due to an injury. Lucky loser Sloane Stephens has taken Muchova's place in the draw.)

Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens preview

Madison Keys is set to open her 2021 Italian Open campaign with a first-round encounter against lucky loser Sloane Stephens on Tuesday.

Keys began her season with an impressive win over top 10 player Belinda Bencic, but has struggled for consistency since. The American has made first-round exits at her last three tournaments, and will be hopeful of turning over a new leaf in Rome.

Sloane Stephens

Stephens, meanwhile, is coming in on the back of a second-round loss at the WTA 1000 event in Madrid. That was preceded by a quarterfinal finish in Charleston, where the 28-year-old beat Ajla Tomljanovic and Madison Keys herself before losing to Veronika Kudermetova.

Stephens lost in the final qualifying round at Rome on Sunday, but she certainly knows how to play on clay. A former Roland Garros runner-up, the World No. 65 can certainly cause a few problems for her younger countrywoman on Tuesday.

Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens head-to-head

Madison Keys will look to dictate proceedings using her big groundstrokes

Sloane Stephens leads Madison Keys by a margin of 4-1 in head-to-head matchups. Keys' only win came at Charleston in 2019, where she came through in three tough sets. All of Stephens' four wins, by contrast, have come in straight sets.

Madison Keys vs Sloane Stephens prediction

The duo's past head-to-head notwithstanding, Sloane Stephens will enter this contest as a bit of a favorite. The 28-year-old is very comfortable on clay, where she can user her vaunted foot speed to elicit errors from her opponents.

For Madison Keys, a lot will depend on how well she is serving and connecting on her groundstrokes. She does enjoy playing in Rome, having reached the final of the tournament back in 2016. That said, her current form fails to inspire a lot of confidence ahead of this match.

Keys will still try and take control of the match using her groundstrokes. But Stephens has shown in the past that it is very difficult to hit past her, especially on slow surfaces. Moreover, the 28-year-old can generate a lot of power off the ground herself, and has the variety to back that up.

If she can bring together all the small elements in her game, as she did at her peak back in 2017 and 2018, Stephens should be able to fend off Keys in this one.

Prediction: Sloane Stephens to win in three sets.