Italian Open 2023: Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (4) Casper Ruud vs (7) Holger Rune

Date: Friday, May 19

Tournament: Italian Open 2023

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune preview

Ruud is in the Rome semifinals for the third time.

Fourth seed Casper Ruud takes on seventh seed Holger Rune in an enthralling first semifinal at the Italian Open.

World No. 4 Ruud was clutch against Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinals on Wednesday. The Norwegian squandered a break in the first set before recovering from a mini-break in the ensuing tie-break to draw first blood.

In a tight second set, Ruud engineered the only break of the set in the ninth game, before serving out for victory in two hours and five minutes to reach a third straight semifinal at the Foro Italico.

Having lost both his two previous claycourt matches against Cerundolo - including one at Barcelona last month in straight sets - Ruud converted three of his 14 break points to advance to the next round. He's now 15-9 on the season and 13-3 in Rome.

Meanwhile, the seventh-ranked Rune ended the title defence of World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in a rain-marred three-set last-eight clash. The 20-year-old burst out the blocks, taking the opener for the loss of just two games.

The Serb fought back to force a decider but ran out of steam as Rune won the first four games and didn't look back. The Norwegian was rampant on return, converting five of 10 break points and blasting 26 winners. Rune is now 26-9 in 2023 and 4-0 in the Italian capital.

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Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune head-to-head

Ruud has a perfect 4-0 record against his Scandinavian, with all four meetings happening on clay. Their last clash came in the 2022 Roland Garros quarterfinals, where Rune took his only set off Ruud.

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Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Casper Ruud	+140	+1.5 (-190)	Under 22.5 (-120)
Holger Rune	-175	-1.5 (+130)	Over 22.5 (-120)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Casper Ruud vs Holger Rune prediction

Rune is 4-0 in Rome.

Both Ruud and Rune are quintessential baseliners and have pretty similar game styles. Both have big serves, hit the ball powerfully off both flanks, and are elite movers.

However, Ruud gets a marginal edge because of his superior claycourt pedigree - 109-40 record and nine titles. Rune, by contrast, is coming off his 50th claycourt match, going 30-20, winning two titles.

Ruud has 'owned' Rune, going by the pair's previous clashes, but going by current form, the Dane will fancy his chances. He's also in better claycourt form this season, going 12-2, while Ruud is 10-3.

It should be a tough battle, but with Ruud not yet showing the kind of form he exhibited last year, Rune could take this one.

Pick: Rune in three sets