Italian Open 2023: Daniil Medvedev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (3) Daniil Medvedev vs (31) Bernabe Zapata Miralles

Date: Monday, May 15

Tournament: Italian Open 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Daniil Medvedev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles preview

Medevedev is into the fourth round.

Third seed Daniil Medvedev will continue his pursuit of a maiden claycourt Masters 1000 title when he takes on 31st seed Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the Italian Open third round.

World No. 3 Medvedev downed Emil Ruusuvuori in straight sets to finally get off the mark at the Foro Italico in his fourth attempt. Having lost on his Rome debut five years ago against Robin Haase, Medevedev lost to Nick Kyrgios a year later before enduring the same fate against Aslan Karatsev in 2021.

In a tricky opening-round clash spanning 88 minutes, Medvedev broke Ruusuvuori five times as he brought up a tour-leading 34th win of the season in 39 matches. It was also his 77th victory at a Masters 1000 tournament but first in Rome.

Medvedev was understandably relieved to finally open his account in the Italian Open.

“Whenever I come to a tournament, I know that I can play well, so I’m happy to finally get the win here in Rome,” he said.

Meanwhile, the 38th-ranked Zapata Miralles improved to 14-11 for the season by beating Jason Kubler in three sets. Coming off a fourth-round run in Madrid a fortnight ago, the Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro finalist is off the mark in Rome in his first attempt.

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Daniil Medevedev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles head-to-head

This is the pair's first tour-level meeting, so their head-to-head record stands at 0-0.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Daniil Medvedev	-450	-1.5 (-160)	Over 20.5 (-110)
Bernabe Zapata Miralles	+310	+1.5 (+115)	Under 20.5 (-125)

All odds as per BETMGM.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles prediction

Zapata Miralles won on his Rome debut.

Both Medvedev and Zapata Miralles are quintessential baseliners. However, the Russian takes the edge because of his big serves and powerful hitting off either flank and also moves well for his height. Zapata Miralles, by contrast, has more modest weapons in his arsenal.

However, for all his exploits on hardcourt, Medvedev's game on clay is a work in progress. In fact, the former World No. 1 has a losing (23-25) record on the surface, having won 301 times overall. Zapata Miralles, meanwhile, has a similar record, going 25-22.

Nevertheless, the confidence from Medvedev's blistering start to the season is translating to clay - making the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo and the fourth round in Madrid. He has now crossed the opening-round hurdle at all ten tournaments this year.

Considering the above factors, Medvedev should live to fight another day.

Pick: Medvedev in three sets