Match Details
Fixture: (7) Elena Rybakina vs (20) Jelena Ostapenko
Date: Friday, May 19
Tournament: Italian Open 2023
Round: Semifinal
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: €7,705,780
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko preview
Seventh seed Elena Rybakina takes on 20th seed Jelena Ostapenko in an unexpected semifinal at the Italian Open.
World No. 6 Rybakina upset top seed and defending champion Iga Swiatek, who retired at 2-2 in the third set of their late-night quarterfinal clash on Wednesday to reach her first WTA 1000 semifinal on clay.
When Swiatek opened up a 3-0 double break lead in the first set, the two-time defending champion was expected to have a comfortable outing as she pocketed the opener 6-2. It was Rybakina's first dropped set in four matches this week. The writing seemed to be on the wall for the Kazakh, who trailed 3-1 in the second.
However, she broke back and improved to 9/10 in tiebreaks this year to force a decider before an injured Swiatek retired after two hours, 20 minutes at 2-2 in the third. Rybakina is now 26-7 on the season.
Meanwhile, the 20th-ranked Ostapenko is having a dream run on clay, six years after her unexpected Roland Garros triumph. The Latvian beat Paula Badosa in three sets (6-2, 4-6, 6-3) to improve to 1-2 in Rome quarterfinals.
Ostapenko made a brisk start, blasting 10 winners in the first five games en route to taking the opener. Although Badosa fought back to take the second, the Latvian won five of the last six games to reach her first Foro Italico semifinal in a contest that lasted 13 minutes shy of two hours. Ostapenko is now 18-10 in 2023.
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko head-to-head
Ostapenko leads 2-1 in the head-to-head against Rybakina. However, the Kazakh won the pair's last meeting at this year's Australian Open quarterfinal.
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko odds
(All odds as per BETMGM)
Elena Rybakina vs Jelena Ostapenko prediction
Both Rybakina and Ostapenko are powerful hitters of the ball and also serve and move well. However, going by current form, the Kazakh takes the edge because of her superior experience, pedigree and consistency.
The two players have had contrasting runs to their first Rome semifinal. While Rybakina has dropped only one set in four matches en route to her third WTA 1000 semifinal of the season, Ostapenko has dropped a set thrice in four matches.
Rybakina trails Ostapenko in their head-to-head but is playing some of the best tennis of her career. Although clay isn't her strongest suit, the Kazakh's confidence is leading to improved performances on the surface. Moreover, Ostapenko could be exhausted by her exploits this fortnight, so expect Rybakina to take this one.
Pick: Rybakina in three sets