Italian Open 2023 Final: Elena Rybakina vs Anhelina Kalinina, preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (7) Elena Rybakina vs (30) Anhelina Kalinina

Date: Saturday, May 20

Tournament: Italian Open 2023

Round: Final

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Elena Rybakina vs Anhelina Kalinina preview

Rybakina is looking for her first WTA 1000 title on clay

Seventh seed Elena Rybakina takes on 30th seed Anhelina Kalinina in an unexpected title match at the Italian Open.

World No. 6 Rybakina built on her 'upset' win over top seed and defending champion Iga Swiatek in the last eight by beating 2017 Roland Garros winner Jelena Ostapenko in the last four. In the process, she reached her third WTA 1000 final, having won at the Indian Wells and lost in Miami.

The 2023 Australian Open finalist burst out of the blocks, surging to a 4-1 lead. A fifth ace of the set sealed the opener after 43 minutes before Ostapenko fought back. The Latvian, on either side of a rain break, went ahead 4-1. However, Ostapenko imploded after another rain break, losing five straight games to lose the match.

Following Monica Seles (1991) and Maria Sharapova (2012), Rybakina is only the third woman in the Open Era to make the finals at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Rome in the same season. The Kazakh is now 27-7 in 2023.

Meanwhile, the 47th-ranked Kalinina reprised her iron woman avatar again. After beating Beatriz Haddad Maia in the last eight in the longest match of the year (3 hours, 41 minutes), the Ukrainian was at it once more against Veronika Kudermetova.

Kalinina prevailed in another three-setter just nine minutes shy of three hours for her second straight top-20 win to reach her first WTA 1000 final. She's now 15-10 on the season.

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Elena Rybakina vs Anhelina Kalinina head-to-head

Rybakina lost her only match with Kalinina on the green clay of Charleston last year, going down after taking the opener.

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Elena Rybakina vs Anhelina Kalinina odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Elena Rybakina	-300	-1.5 (-120)	Over 21.5 (-105)
Anhelina Kalinina	+240	+1.5 (-115)	Under 21.5 (-135)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Elena Rybakina vs Anhelina Kalinina prediction

Kalinina is into her first WTA 1000 final

Both Rybakina and Kalinina look to dominate opponents from the back of the court, but the similarities in their game styles end there. Rybakina is a big server, can hit powerfully off either flank, and is a good mover; while Kalinina has more modest weapons.

The two players have taken contrasting routes to the final. While Rybakina dropped her only set of the fortnight in the quarterfinal against Swiatek, Kalinina has gone the distance in her last three matches.

Kalinina beat Rybakina in the pair's lone meeting, but the Kazakh is a much-improved player now. Moreover, exhaustion could be a factor for Kalinina - having spent over 6.5 hours on court in the last two matches. So, expect Rybakina to take the win.

Pick: Rybakina in straight sets