Italian Open 2023: Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

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Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti: Italian Open Third Round
Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti: Italian Open Third Round

Fixture: (12) Frances Tiafoe vs (18) Lorenzo Musetti

Date: Monday, May 15

Tournament: Italian Open 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Tiafoe is into the third round in Rome.
Tiafoe is into the third round in Rome.

Twelfth seed Frances Tiafoe takes on 18th seed Lorenzo Musetti on Monday in the third round of the 2023 Italian Open.

World No. 12 Tiafoe got up and running at the Foro Italico by beating German qualifier Daniel Altmaier in a tough three-setter. Altmaier pocketed the first set for the loss of just three games before Tiafoe levelled proceedings by taking the second set 7-5.

Contiuing his momentum, the 25-year-old American took the decider 6-3 to improve to 21-7 on the season. It was Tiafoe's first win at the Foro Italico in four attempts. The reigning Houston champion is now 2-2 on European clay, having lost in the Madrid third round a fortnight ago after stumbling in the Barcelona opener.

Tiafoe has had a good season overall, which started with five wins in five during Team USA's victorious campaign at the inaugural United Cup Down Under. After reaching the Dallas and Acapulco quarterfinals, he made the last four at Indian Wells.

Meanwhile, the 19th-ranked Musetti opened his campaign for a maiden Masters 1000 title by beating his compatriot - wildcard Matteo Arnaldi - in straight sets. The 21-year-old Italian is now 12-11 on the season, coming off an opening-round loss in Madrid.

Musetti is now 4-2 in Rome, where he lost in the second round in 2021 after making the Round of 16 in 2020.


Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

The two players have split their two previous meetings. Tiafoe won their last clash at the United Cup final earlier this year while Musetti won their Round of 16 encounter in Acapulco in 2021. The pair is yet to play on clay.


Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (over/under)
Frances Tiafoe+160+1.5 (-155)Under 22.5 (-135)
Lorenzo Musetti-210-1.5 (+110)Over 22.5 (-105)

(All odds as per BETMGM)


Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

Musetti is looking to reach the fourth round.
Musetti is looking to reach the fourth round.

Both Tiafoe and Musetti are quintessential baseliners and have similar gamestyles - big serve, powerful hitting off either flank and good movement. However, the American takes the edge because of his superior consistency and pedigree.

Having said that, Tiafoe's game remains a work in progress on clay - where he has a losing record (27-32). Meanwhile, Musetti has gone 38-24 on the surface, winning one title.

While Tiafoe remains a formidable opponent, clay isn't his strongest suit. Considering the same, Musetti should take this one.

Pick: Musetti in three sets

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Edited by Arshit Garg
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