Italian Open 2023: Novak Djokovic's projected path to final

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is set to return to action at the Italian Open this week. He missed the Madrid Open last week due to injury.

The 35-year-old is the defending champion at the prestigious claycourt Masters 1000 event. He is coming off a quarterfinal loss to compatriot and eventual winner Dusan Lajovic at the inaugural ATP 250 Srpska Open in Banja Luka.

With just three losses in 20 matches this year, Djokovic has been one of the most in-form players this year. As he seeks a seventh title at the Foro Italico this fortnight, here's a look at his projected path to the title:

Novak Djokovic's likely Round 2 opponent: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Tomas Martin Etcheverry or Luca Van Assche will be the opening round opponent for Novak Djokovic after a first-round bye.

While the Serb has never faced the in-form Etcheverry before, he was taken the distance by Frenchman Van Assche in the Banja Luka second round.

Van Assche, the only teenager in the top 100, is 2-5 on the season. Meanwhile, Etcheverry reached his first two singles finals - Santiago and Houston - this year, losing both. The Argentine is 14-11 in 2023.

Djokovic is expected to get the better of either man without much trouble, in spite of the fact that he will be returning to action after nearly a month on the sidelines.

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# Probable third-round opponent - Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov

If Djokovic navigates his opening-round hurdle for the 17th time in as many appearances, Grigor Dimitrov or Stan Wawrinka are possible opponents in the third round. Going by current form and ranking, Dimitrov is the more likely opponent for the Serb.

Djokovic would be heavily favoured to beat Dimitrov, having gone 10-1 against the Bulgarian so far. Against Wawrinka, the Serb is 20-6, with a lead of 6-2 on clay.

Moreover, Djokovic is 16-0 in third-round matches at the Foro Italia, a trend that's likely to continue.

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Probable fourth-round opponent - Cameron Norrie

Cameron Norrie

Going by the seedings, 13th seed Cameron Norrie could lie in wait for Djokovic in the fourth round.

The left-handed Norrie is enjoying one of his career-best seasons. He is 23-8 so far, including a title run at the ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro Open.

However, Norrie has gone 2-4 in his last six matches. He has also lost both his previous meetings with Djokovic, although neither of them was on clay.

The Brit took a set off Djokovic in the Wimbledon semifinals last year, but clay could be a different ball game despite Norrie's improved returns this season.

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Probable Quarterfinal Opponent - Holger Rune

Holger Rune

Seventh seed Holger Rune is one of the most formidable opponents in Djokovic's quarter of the draw.

The reigning Munich and Paris Masters champion is quietly having an impressive campaign, having gone 22-9 so far. He finished as the runner-up to Andrey Rublev at the Monte Carlo Masters, and recorded the first successful title defense of his career at Munich.

Rune has split his two previous meetings with Djokovic, which includes the final of the Paris Masters last year. Given his impressive form on European clay this season, with a win-loss record of 8-2, the Dane could provide a significant challenge to Djokovic should the matchup materialise.

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# Probable Semifinal Opponent - Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud is yet to get going in 2023.

Fourth seed Casper Ruud is a possible opponent for Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.

After the staggering highs of last season - reaching the finals of a Masters 1000, two Grand Slams and the ATP Finals - the 24-year-old Ruud has struggled to get going this season.

He has only won 11 of his 20 matches in 2023, with his record on European clay being 6-3. Rudd's win at Estoril proved to be a false dawn, as he has won only two of his last five matches across three claycourt events - including an opening-round loss at Madrid a fortnight ago.

However, the Norwegian has been a strong performer in Rome, reaching the semifinals in his last two appearances and boasting a 9-3 record overall. Interestingly, two of his losses in Rome came against Djokovic, both in straight sets.

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Possible Final opponent - Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz

Second seed Carlos Alcaraz would likely provide the sternest challenge to Novak Djokovic's title aspirations should both men reach the final.

The 20-year-old has been in imperious form this season, winning 29 of his 31 matches. Alcaraz is coming off a second-straight Barcelona-Madrid double.

The 2023 Laureus Breakthrough of the Year award winner is a perfect 11-0 on European clay this season, and 19-1 on the surface in 2023. That lone loss came to Norrie in the Rio de Janeiro final.

Alcaraz, the soon-to-be World No. 1, beat Djokovic in a third-set tiebreak in the pair's lone previous meeting, which came in the Madrid semifinals last year. If they meet in Rome this fortnight, the in-form Spaniard could well emerge triumphant again.