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Match Details
Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs (9) Jelena Ostapenko
Date: May 15, 2024
Tournament: Italian Open 2024
Round: Quarterfinal
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $5,509,771
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN2
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko preview
World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka will take on Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Italian Open on Wednesday, May 15.
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Sabalenka secured wins over Katie Volynets and Dayana Yastremska to book her spot in the fourth round, where she faced 16th seed Elina Svitolina. The Belarusian overcame a break deficit to level the score in the first set. However, she went down a break once more and lost the set.
Sabalenka's response was swift as she captured the second set for the loss of just one game. The two exchanged leads twice in the decider, with the Belarusian saving a couple of match points on her serve to force a tie-break. She fended off another match point in the tie-break to beat Svitolina 4-6, 6-1, 7-6 (7).
Ostapenko knocked out Anastasia Potapova and Sara Sorribes Tormo to make the fourth round, where she was up against Rebecca Sramkova. The Latvian led by 3-1 in the first set but dropped five of the next six games to concede the opener.
Ostapenko got back on track as she claimed the second set to level the proceedings. She trailed by a break twice in the third set but got back on serve on both occasions. The match was eventually decided by a tie-break, in which the Latvian gained the upper hand for a 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3) comeback win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Ostapenko 2-0 in the head-to-head. She won their previous encounter at the 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships in three sets.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko prediction
Both staged impressive comebacks to secure their place in the quarterfinals. Svitolina gave Sabalenka a second lease of life when she missed an easy backhand on the first match point. However, the latter saved the next couple of match points on her merit.
Sabalenka was hampered by a back issue midway through the match. While she eventually got over the finish line, there's a possibility of her withdrawing from the tournament. She does have a day off to recover but with the French Open right around the corner, she might prefer to be a little cautious.
If Sabalenka does take to the court, then she will be favored to win. She has beaten Ostapenko at her own game as she's able to outhit her, that too without committing as many errors as the Latvian.
Both have played their fair share of three-set matches this year. Ostapenko has an 8-2 record in deciding set matches this year, while Sabalenka has gone 8-5 in them so far. Ultimately, it all comes down to the Belarusian's health, if she's fully fit, then there's no stopping her.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.
