Italian Open 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Daniil Medvedev vs (14) Tommy Paul

Date: Tuesday, May 14

Time: TBD

Tournament: 2024 Italian Open

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Clay (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $7,877,020

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul preview

Daniil Medvedev at the 2024 Internazionali BNL D'Italia

Second seed Daniil Medvedev is set to continue his title defense against fourteenth seed Tommy Paul in the fourth round of the 2024 Italian Open on Tuesday, May 14.

Medvedev walked into the Italian capital with a 4-2 match record on the red dirt this season, with a quarterfinal showing in Madrid his best so far.

He kicked off his title defense against Jack Draper in the second round after receiving a bye in the first. Medvedev edged a topsy-turvy first set in his favor after failing to close it out on his first try. He then raced to a 5-1 lead in the second, but Draper reeled off three games in a row to make it 5-4. Medvedev eventually served it out to hand himself a 7-5, 6-4 win.

Up against Hamad Medjedovic in the third round, Medvedev edged a tight first set in the breaker. Medjedovic fought back in the second with his powerful groundstrokes to take it into a decider. Medvedev once again put forth his best when it mattered the most to seal a 7-6 (5), 2-6, 7-5 win.

Tommy Paul, meanwhile, also received a bye in the first round and kicked off his campaign in Rome with a clinical 6-4, 6-2 victory over Aslan Karatsev in the second round.

He took on Dominik Koepfer in the third round. Both players held serve until Koepfer cracked in the 10th game to hand the first set to Paul.

Paul grabbed the advantage early in the second set, breaking in the fourth game to take a 3-1 lead. He didn't look back from there on and sealed an impressive 6-4, 6-3 win to secure a berth in the fourth round.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul head-to-head

Daniil Medvedev leads Tommy Paul 3-1 in their head-to-head on the tour. They last faced off earlier this year in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells with the Russian coming out on top in a tight three-setter 1-6, 7-6 (3), 6-2.

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over & Under)
Daniil Medvedev	-210	-1.5 (+110)	Over 21.5 (-125)
Tommy Paul	+160	+1.5 (-155)	Under 21.5 (-110)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul prediction

Tommy Paul at the 2024 Internazionali BNL D'Italia

Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul's fourth-round encounter promises to be an exciting one for the fans, with both players keen to make it to the business end of the event.

Medvedev opened his campaign in Rome with a clinical win but was taken the distance in his second match. While he looked errant from the back of the court in the second set that he lost, he pulled up his socks in the decider with some brilliant play to seal his spot in the fourth round.

Paul on the other hand has shone so far in the Italian capital with a couple of solid wins against tricky opponents. He has yet to lose a set and has dropped serve just twice so far at the event. He's looked good all around the court and has fired from both wings. His occasional net play has also done him well.

Both players head into this encounter evenly matched, but Medvedev could hold the slight edge purely based on his experience and big match play despite Paul being in better form. Medvedev has also gotten the better of Paul on every occasion in the past and this match could end up the same way if the American doesn't change up his gameplay.

Nonetheless, both players will have to serve incredibly well and be potent on the return should they want to win the match.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev in three sets.