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Match Details
Fixture: (10) Daria Kasatkina vs (PR) Naomi Osaka
Date: May 11, 2024
Tournament: Italian Open 2024
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize money: $5,509,771
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka preview
Daria Kasatkina will square off against former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the third round of the 2024 Italian Open on Saturday.
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Following a first-round bye, Kasatkina took on Tatjana Maria in the second round. The Russian was all over the place at the start of the first set and her uneven gameplay caused her to trail 4-2.
Kasatkina raised her level from that point on as she bagged five of the next six games to clinch the set. Her focus didn't waver in the second set as she conceded one game in it to register a 7-5, 6-1 win.
Osaka commenced her Italian Open campaign with a 7-6 (2), 6-1 win over Clara Burel. She was up against World No. 20 Marta Kostyuk in the second round. The Japanese was off to a fast start as she raced to a 4-0 lead in the first set.
Kostyuk tried to claw her way back but Osaka kept her at bay to claim the set. The latter continued to set the terms of play in the second set as well. She was up 3-1 when the match was halted due to the weather.
They were back on court after some time and Osaka immediately broke Kostyuk's serve upon resumption of play. While the Japanese lost her serve as well after that, she snagged another break to go 5-2 up. She closed out the match in the next game for a 6-3, 6-2 win.
Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head
Osaka leads Kasatkina 1-0 in the head-to-head. She won their previous encounter at the 2018 Indian Wells Open in straight sets.
Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka prediction
Osaka's win over Kostyuk was her first against a top-20 player on clay. She's slowly making some headway on the surface after hitting a roadblock in it a couple of years ago.
Kasatkina started off poorly against Maria but once she adapted her tactics, there was no stopping her. While her serve remains a liability, her ability to do well on return games always keeps her in contention.
Kasatkina could find it tough to break Osaka's serve often if the latter has a good day on serve. The Japanese has won an average of 83% of her first serve points across her two matches in Rome.
Kasatkina relies more on finesse compared to the hard-hitting style of Osaka. The former's loopy shots and defensive tactics could flummox the latter. The Russian's results on clay make her the favorite in this encounter but this new version of Osaka could find a way to prevail as well.
Pick: Daria Kasatkina to win in three sets.
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