Italian Open 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Iga Swiatek-Coco Gauff SF

The women's singles draw for the 2024 Italian Open was unveiled on Monday, May 6.

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek leads the pack as the top seed. She won the Madrid Open over the weekend in a thrilling three-set final against Aryna Sabalenka. The Pole will now aim to do the Madrid Open-Italian Open double.

No player has won these two tournaments back-to-back since Serena Williams did the same in 2013. Simona Halep came quite close to it in 2017 as she won the Madrid Open that year but lost in the final of the Italian Open.

All seeded players have received a first-round bye. While the top players won't be in action right off the bat, some thrilling matches are set in store in each round.

On that note, here's a look at how the women's singles draw might unfold over the next fortnight:

First quarter: Iga Swiatek eyes her third Italian Open title

Seeded players: (1) Iga Swiatek, (6) Marketa Vondrousova, (12) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (14) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (17) Veronika Kudermetova, (18) Madison Keys, (28) Sorana Cirstea, and (31) Sloane Stephens.

Expected quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek vs Marketa Vondrousova

Dark horse: Leylah Fernandez

Iga Swiatek's clay swing commenced with a semifinal finish in Stuttgart, where she was the two-time defending champion. As mentioned above, she then went on to win the Madrid Open.

Swiatek captured her first Italian Open title in 2021 and successfully defended it the following year. Her reign in Rome came to an end last year after she was forced to retire in the quarterfinals against Elena Rybakina due to an injury.

Swiatek will face either a qualifier or Caroline Dolehide in the second round, with Sloane Stephens being her possible opponent in the third round. Veronika Kudermetova or Ekaterina Alexandrova could await the Pole in the fourth round, if they make it that far.

Kudermetova has been in poor form the entire season. While Alexandrova did eliminate Swiatek from the Miami Open a couple of months ago, the latter will be favored to win on clay.

Marketa Vondrousova is the next highest seeded player in this quarter of the draw. She has performed quite well in Rome over the years and has the potential to make a deep run yet again.

Madison Keys, a former runner-up at the Italian Open, along with Beatriz Haddad Maia, will be the other favorites to make it to the quarterfinal as well. Both performed well at the recently concluded Madrid Open.

Keys lost in the semifinals, while Haddad Maia made it to the quarterfinals. Both were shown the door by Swiatek. It is quite difficult to stop the Pole once she garners some momentum. Considering that she's fresh off a title-winning run in Madrid, she'll be the favorite to make it through this section regardless of who's on the other side of the net.

Quarterfinal prediction: Iga Swiatek def. Beatriz Haddad Maia

Second quarter: Coco Gauff hoping for a reversal of fortunes in Rome

Coco Gauff is the third seed at the 2024 Italian Open.

Seeded players: (3) Coco Gauff, (7) Zheng Qinwen, (10) Daria Kasatkina, (15) Liudmila Samsonova, (19) Marta Kostyuk, (21) Emma Navarro, (25) Barbora Krejcikova, and (29) Linda Noskova.

Expected quarterfinal: Coco Gauff vs Zheng Qinwen

Dark horse: Mirra Andreeva

Coco Gauff has decent results on clay this season, with a quarterfinal finish in Stuttgart and a fourth-round showing in Madrid. However, she's a little behind when compared to the likes of Swiatek and Rybakina.

Gauff did reach the semifinals of the Italian Open in 2021 but hasn't advanced past the third round since then. She could be up against Magdalena Frech in the second round, with a potential third-round date with Barbora Krejcikova after that.

Teen phenom Mirra Andreeva is also in Gauff's section. The 17-year-old will face Paula Badosa in her opener. She'll next need to get past Emma Navarro and Liudmila Samsonova in order to set up a fourth-round showdown with the World No. 3. If the American doesn't raise her level, the Russian teen could sneak past her.

Naomi Osaka will begin her Italian Open campaign against Clara Burel. If she makes it through the clash, she will face Marta Kostyuk in the second round, followed by Daria Kasatkina in the third round.

Either Linda Noskova or Zheng Qinwen will await Osaka in the fourth round, if she makes it that far. Kostyuk's results this year make her the top choice to make it through this part of the draw.

Quarterfinal prediction: Mirra Andreeva def. Marta Kostyuk

Third quarter: Elena Rybakina gunning for a maiden title defense

Seeded players: (3) Elena Rybakina, (5) Maria Sakkari, (11) Jasmine Paolini, (13) Danielle Collins, (22) Caroline Garcia, (24) Victoria Azarenka, (27) Elise Mertens, and (30) Anhelina Kalinina.

Expected quarterfinal: Elena Rybakina vs Maria Sakkari

Dark horse: Donna Vekic

Elena Rybakina clinched the title in Stuttgart and followed it up with a semifinal finish at the Madrid Open. She'll be keen to continue her good run of form with the first title defense of her career at the Italian Open.

Rybakina will commence her title defense against either a qualifier or Irina-Camelia Begu. Elise Mertens is likely to be her third-round adversary, with Danielle Collins being her potential fourth-round foe.

Collins defeated Rybakina in the final of the Miami Open earlier this year and could give the Kazakh a tough time once again. Maria Sakkari is the other top-10 seed in this quarter. She could face last year's Italian Open runner-up Anhelina Kalinina in the third round.

Sakkari could then take on Jasmine Paolini in the fourth round. The latter already defeated the Greek en route to the title at the Dubai Tennis Championships in February. The Italian is in good form this season and could set up a quarterfinal clash against either Rybakina or Collins.

Quarterfinal prediction: Jasmine Paolini def. Elena Rybakina

Fourth quarter: Aryna Sabalenka will aim to reach her first Italian Open final

Aryna Sabalenka is the second seed at the 2024 Italian Open.

Seeded players: (2) Aryna Sabalenka, (8) Ons Jabeur, (9) Jelena Ostapenko, (16) Elina Svitolina, (20) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, (23) Anna Kalinskaya, (26) Katie Boulter, and (32) Dayana Yastremska.

Expected quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ons Jabeur

Dark horse: Sara Sorribes Tormo

Sabalenka went through a lean phase after her title defense at the Australian Open. She rediscovered her groove at the Madrid Open, where she was the defending champion.

Sabalenka was one point away from a successful title defense on three occasions in the final but Swiatek snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Nevertheless, it was a good tournament for the Belarusian.

Sabalenka's record at the Italian Open is quite dismal despite a semifinal showing in 2022. She has just four wins from her five appearances here. However, she has a relatively easy draw this time and has a great shot to make a deep run here.

Sabalenka's section until the fourth round is filled with players who are out of form and lower-ranked players. She'll start against either Wang Yafan or a qualifier and could meet Dayana Yastremska in the third round. The latter has won just a handful of matches since her semifinal run at the Australian Open.

Sabalenka could then face one of Elina Svitolina, Anna Kalinskaya or Amanda Anisimova in the fourth round. However, the three of them have hardly won any matches on clay this year.

Ons Jabeur and Jelena Ostapenko are on collision course once again. The former sent the latter packing from the Madrid Open a few days ago. The two are on track to meet in the fourth round, provided they get past their previous opponents.

Sara Sorribes Tormo has the potential to play the spoilsport here. She won the doubles title in Madrid and reached the fourth round in singles. She could manage to pip either Ostapenko or Jabeur, or both, to face Sabalenka in the quarterfinals.

Quarterfinal prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Ons Jabeur