Japan Open 2024: Holger Rune vs Kei Nishikori preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Holger Rune vs (WC) Kei Nishikori

Date: 29 September 2024

Tournament: Japan Open 2024

Round: Quarter-final

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $1,818,380

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN

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Holger Rune vs Kei Nishikori preview

Holger Rune in action at the 2024 Western & Southern Open (Picture: Getty)

Sixth seed Holger Rune will lock horns with home favorite Kei Nishikori in a highly anticipated quarterfinal clash at the 2024 Japan Open on Sunday, September 29.

Rune arrived in Tokyo with a 33-19 season record, with a run to the finals of the Brisbane Open at the start of the year as his best result so far. He last featured at the Chengdu Open where he suffered a shock defeat in his opener to Yasutaka Uchiyama in straight sets. He was also sent packing in the first round of the US Open after a decently successful start to the North American hardcourt swing that saw him reach the third round in Montreal and the semifinals in Cincinnati.

Rune opened his campaign in the Japanese capital with a hard-fought 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 victory over Alejandro Tabilo in the first round. He then cruised through his second-round match against local player Yoshihito Nishioka, winning comfortably 6-2, 6-4 in just one hour and seven minutes.

The 34-year-old Nishikori, on the other hand, has not competed regularly on tour this year, arriving at his home event with a 5-6 match record. He has only participated in Miami, Paris, Eastbourne, Wimbledon, Montreal, and Chengdu leading up to this tournament. His best result came in Montreal, where he reached the quarterfinals with notable wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Nuno Borges.

Awarded a wildcard this week, Nishikori began his campaign with an impressive 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 victory over longtime rival and Chengdu champion Marin Cilic. He was much more clinical in his second-round match, defeating an in-form Jordan Thompson in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3.

Holger Rune vs Kei Nishikori head-to-head

Holger Rune and Kei Nishikori are yet to face off in professional competition so their head-to-head is 0-0.

Holger Rune vs Kei Nishikori odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Holger Rune	-160	+1.5 (-400)	Over 22.5 (-120)
Kei Nishikori	+125	-1.5 (+250)	Under 22.5 (-120)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

Holger Rune vs Kei Nishikori prediction

TENNIS: AUG 08 National Bank Open - Source: Getty

Both Holger Rune and Kei Nishikori are coming off impressive second-round wins after a challenging start to their campaigns in Tokyo.

Rune excelled on serve, winning 88% of points behind his first serve and recording 11 aces. He was also solid at the net, winning 100% of points when he approached the net. His aggressive play from the baseline allowed him to hit 26 winners compared to just 10 unforced errors.

Nishikori was equally spectacular in his previous match, particularly with his return, a strength he has showcased for many years. He converted 5 out of 7 break points and won 50% of his return points. His net game was impressive as well, with a win rate of 89% on points when he came forward. Although he hit 19 winners against 21 unforced errors, he forced numerous mistakes from his opponent with his excellent all-court coverage.

Rune enters this encounter as the favorite, thanks to his superior record on tour this season, especially on hard courts. However, Nishikori has played significantly fewer matches and has a relatively close win index.

An upset is certainly possible if Nishikori can elevate his game, especially with the raucous home support behind him. That said, Rune should be able to get the job done if he plays as well as he did in his previous match. Regardless, an exciting match is on the cards for tennis fans.

Pick: Rune in three sets.