Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick | Australian Open 2025

Match Details

Fixture: (19) Madison Keys vs (2) Iga Swiatek

Date: January 23, 2025

Tournament: Australian Open 2025

Round: Semifinals

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Prize Money: A$96,500,000

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN & Tennis Channel | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Sports & Sony LIV

Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek preview

Madison Keys of the United States & Iga Swiatek of Poland shake hands at the net after the semi-final on Day Ten of the Mutua Madrid Open at La Caja Magica on May 02, 2024 in Madrid, Spain - Source: Getty

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek will face the 19th-seed Madison Keys in the semifinals of the 2025 Australian Open on Thursday, 23 January. Five-time Grand Slam champion Swiatek has been in sublime form, dropping only 14 games in her five matches at the 2025 Australian Open so far.

The 23-year-old Pole dropped half of those games in her first-round match against Katerina Siniakova, winning 6-3, 6-4. She then outclassed Rebecca Sramkova 6-0, 6-2, Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-0, Eva Lys 6-0, 6-1 and Emma Navarro 6-1, 6-2.

On the other hand, 29-year-old Keys has dropped three sets on her way to the semifinals. She dropped a set each against Elena Gabriela Ruse (second round), Elena Rybakina (fourth round), and Elina Svitolina (quarterfinals).

Keys has reached the semifinals of the Australian Open for the third time, and just like in 2022, she came to the Melbourne Major after winning the Adelaide International title.

Madison Keys of USA holds the Women's Singles Champion trophy during day six of the 2025 Adelaide International at Memorial Drive on January 11, 2025, in Adelaide, Australia. - Source: Getty

Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek head-to-head

Iga Swiatek leads Madison Keys 4-1 in their head-to-head record, but three of those meetings were on clay. On hardcourts, they are level 1-1. Keys' only win against Iga Swiatek was in Cincinnati in 2022, when she won 6-3, 6-4.

Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total games
Madison Keys	+350	TBD	TBD
Iga Swiatek	-475	TBD	TBD

(Have odds sourced from Oddschecker)

Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek prediction

Iga Swiatek will start as the favorite, considering her terrific form. The 2022 Australian Open semifinalist looks determined to reclaim her World No. 1 ranking.

Swiatek could also reclaim the World No. 1 crown if Aryna Sabalenka loses her semifinal match against Paula Badosa. That contest would be held before Swiatek and Keys' match at the Rod Laver Arena.

Madison Keys, meanwhile, has lost at the Australian Open semifinals twice in the past, in 2015 against Serena Williams and in 2022 against Ashleigh Barty. Williams and Barty both went on to win the title.

Keys would be hoping to reach her second Grand Slam final; she lost to Sloane Stephens at the 2017 US Open final. She will be back in the top 10 when the rankings will be released on Monday, and she can improve her ranking further with a win against Iga Swiatek,

Pick: Swiatek to win in three sets