Madrid Masters 2023: Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (1) Carlos Alcaraz vs (26) Grigor Dimitrov

Date: Sunday, April 30

Tournament: Madrid Masters 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov preview

Alcaraz survived a scare in his opening match.

Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will continue his Madrid Open title defense against 26th seed Grigor Dimitrov on Sunday as a place in the fourth round beckons.

World No. 2 Alcaraz survived a scare against Emil Ruusuvuori in his opener. The Spanish teenager dropped serve twice as Ruusuvuori stunned the Caja Magica by taking the opening set. Alcaraz was on the brink at 2-3, 15-40 on serve in the second set.

However, the former World No. 1 dug deep and saved five break points in that pivotal game before taking the second set. It was then all Alcaraz in the third set as he rode the support of a partisan crowd, dropping only two games to register his 24th win in 26 matches this season.

Alcaraz has had a fabulous year, winning titles at the Argentina Open, Indian Wells and Barcelona. He's now 7-1 in Madrid and has a perfect record in six matches on European clay this season.

Meanwhile, the 32nd-ranked Dimitrov saw off Frenchman Gregoire Barrere in two tiebreaks to improve to 11-7 on the season. The Bulgarian is now 12-9 in Madrid, having reached the quarterfinals eight years ago. He reached the third round last year.

The Bulgarian's best results this year have come at Rotterdam, where he reached the last four, and Marseille, where he made the quarterfinals. He's coming off a third-round run at Barcelona last week.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov head-to-head

Alcaraz won his lone meeting with Dimitrov in the Paris Masters third round last year. The pair is yet to meet on clay.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Carlos Alcaraz	-1000	-1.5 (-300)	Over 19.5 (-140)
Grigor Dimitrov	+575	+1.5 (+200)	Under 19.5 (+100)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov prediction

Dimitrov is into the third round.

Both Alcaraz and Dimitrov look to dominate opponents from the baseline, but the similarities in their game styles end there.

Alcaraz is widely regarded as one of the best young players in the sport and has an impressive arsenal: big serves, powerful hitting off both flanks and elite athleticism and temperament. He can win points at the net to keep his opponents guessing and has a fabulous drop shot. Dimitrov, by contrast, has most of these attributes but lacks consistency.

The Spanish teenager is 53-12 on clay, including six titles. Dimitrov is no slouch on clay either, going 87-61 and winning a title, but beating Alcaraz appears to be a task too far.

Pick: Alcaraz in straight sets